丙烯：成本端地缘影响，供应存减量预期，LPG：地缘风险仍存，供应扰动频发

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - There are still geopolitical risks in the LPG market, with frequent supply disruptions. The supply of propylene is expected to decrease due to geopolitical impacts on the cost side [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: - For LPG (PG), on March 27, 2026, the 2604 contract had a closing price of 6,823 with a daily increase of 4.03%, and a night - session closing price of 6,764 with a decrease of 0.86%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 6,541 with a decrease of 0.14%, and a night - session closing price of 6,550 with an increase of 0.14%. The 2606 contract had a closing price of 6,342 with an increase of 0.54%, and a night - session closing price of 6,336 with a decrease of 0.09%. - For propylene (PL), the 2604 contract had a closing price of 8,894 with an increase of 2.21%, and a night - session closing price of 8,980 with an increase of 0.97%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 8,851 with an increase of 1.13%, and a night - session closing price of 8,955 with an increase of 1.18%. The 2606 contract had a closing price of 8,697 with an increase of 0.94%, and a night - session closing price of 8,803 with an increase of 1.22% [1]. - Spot Market: - For LPG, the prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG was 6,250, with a change of - 220 compared to the previous day, and the main - contract basis was - 291 with a change of - 211. - For propylene, the price in Shandong was 8,800, with a change of - 185, and the main - contract basis was - 51 with a change of - 284 [1]. - Industrial Chain Start - up: - The PDH start - up rate was 63.6%, a decrease of 2.03 compared to the previous week. The alkylation start - up rate was 38.6% with no change, and the MTBE start - up rate was 69.89%, an increase of 0.38 [1]. - LPG Shipment Volume: - From the United States, the global shipment volume was 30.9 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 13.9 compared to the previous day. The Asian shipment volume was 13.5, an increase of 8.9. The shipment volume to Southeast Asia was 4.6, a decrease of 0.1. From the Middle East, the global and Asian shipment volumes remained unchanged at 0.0 [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 1, and the trend intensity of propylene is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [5]. 3.3 Market Information - On March 26, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - cargo price of propane was 638 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day; the price of butane was 633 US dollars/ton, also a decrease of 7 US dollars/ton. The May CP paper - cargo price of propane was 651 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars/ton [6]. - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans and domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans, with details including enterprise names, device types, capacities, maintenance start and end times, etc. [7]