特朗普推迟打击伊朗，中东局势依然胶着

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's May light - sweet crude oil futures rose $4.16 to $94.48 per barrel, a 4.61% increase; May London Brent crude oil futures rose $5.79 to $108.01 per barrel, a 5.66% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 2.22% at 745 yuan per barrel [1] - Trump postponed the planned strike on Iran's energy infrastructure by 10 days to 8 p.m. on April 6, Eastern Time. This provides a short - term respite for the global energy market, but the April 6 deadline is a binary catalyst, and the geopolitical situation remains fragile [1] - Mexico's Navy Minister said a ship's oil spill and natural seepage are the sources of the oil spill along the Gulf of Mexico coast, and Pemex is conducting underwater inspections [1] - Denmark's central bank warned that if the Middle - East conflict persists, the domestic economy may be severely hit. It lowered the 2026 economic growth forecast from 2% to 1.8%, and said the economic growth rate could drop by 0.7 percentage points this year if the oil and gas supply in the Persian Gulf is restricted. Inflation could rise from 1.8% to 4.5% [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Trump's postponement of the strike on Iran to April 6 helps with further negotiations, but the probability of a new strike increases as the amphibious fleet is almost in place. The war's future is uncertain. Asian countries will face energy shortages starting next week, and some countries may face energy crises [2] Group 3: Strategy - Oil prices are strongly driven up in the short - term due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but are also prone to sharp drops if the situation reverses. High risks are involved in the current oil market, and using options to hedge risks is recommended [3] Group 4: Risk - Downside risk: The Middle - East war eases and the strait resumes navigation - Upside risk: The Strait of Hormuz remains closed longer than expected [4]