价格持续探底，高库存难以缓解

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply side is expected to gradually release after a significant contraction since the Spring Festival, while the demand for polysilicon remains weak. In the long - term, price support is evident, and the overall situation is one of weak supply and demand. [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue a weak oscillation. The continuous weakness of industrial silicon prices weakens the cost support for polysilicon. The expected demand from the "rush to export" before April has not materialized, and high inventories make it difficult for the industrial chain to transmit demand. [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,785 yuan/ton and closed at 8,735 yuan/ton, a change of 50 yuan/ton (0.58%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2605 main contract at the close was 230,888 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on March 25, 2026 was 22,272 lots, a change of 60 lots from the previous day. [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,100 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8,500 - 8,600 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,500 - 8,600 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. [1] - SMM statistics show that the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on March 19 was 553,000 tons, a decrease of 0.18% from the previous week. [1] - The downstream demand for polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy all decreased to varying degrees after the festival, and most of the post - festival inquiries were exploratory. [1] - The operating rate in Xinjiang exceeded 50%. After the festival, the supply side gradually recovered, but the operating rate in the southwest region remained low during the dry season. [1] Cost - Recently, the prices of petroleum coke and Xinjiang electricity have increased, providing solid cost support for industrial silicon. [2] Strategy - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. Short - term interval operation is recommended. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options. [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures fluctuated and declined, opening at 36,750 yuan/ton and closing at 35,540 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.78% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 33,451 lots (32,820 lots the previous day), and the trading volume on that day was 8,529 lots. [3] - The spot price of polysilicon decreased. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 36.00 - 43.50 yuan/kg (- 0.75 yuan/kg), and the price of n - type granular silicon was 40.00 - 43.00 yuan/kg (no change). [4] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, while the inventory of silicon wafers increased. The latest statistics show that the polysilicon inventory was 332,000 tons, a change of - 3.49% month - on - month, the silicon wafer inventory was 27.65GW, a change of - 2.47% month - on - month, the weekly polysilicon output was 19,000 tons, with no change month - on - month, and the silicon wafer output was 11.78GW, a change of - 1.67% month - on - month. [4] - After the polysilicon price fell below the cost level of 40,000 yuan/ton last week, the market sentiment was pessimistic. Coupled with the continuous weakness of the fundamentals and the impact of the US - Iran conflict on commodities as a whole, the polysilicon price fluctuated and declined, reaching around 35,000 yuan/ton. Most enterprises in the market were in a loss, and only a few enterprises maintained profitability. Affected by cost pressure, the expected production capacity of enterprises will significantly shrink, and attention should also be paid to the possibility of a price rebound after over - decline. [6] Strategy - Polysilicon prices are expected to continue a weak oscillation. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and the main contract is expected to maintain an oscillation in the short term. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or options. [7]