宏观扰动仍然明显，铜价维持震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended - Options: Sell put options [7] 2. Core View of the Report - Amidst significant macro - disturbances, copper prices maintain a volatile pattern. With the decline in oil prices, the market's pricing of interest rate hikes may be gradually corrected. Given the high US debt scale, interest rate hikes are difficult to implement. Enterprises with hedging needs are advised to buy hedges at low prices, with a hedging volume of about one month [1][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 95,950 yuan/ton and closed at 95,350 yuan/ton, a - 0.25% decrease from the previous trading day's close. In the overnight session, it opened at 95,350 yuan/ton and closed at 95,150 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The Shanghai copper 2604 contract gapped lower and fell to 95,070 yuan/ton, closing at 95,160 yuan/ton. The monthly spread was between Contango 30 yuan/ton and Backwardation 10 yuan/ton, with an import loss of 90 - 40 yuan/ton. Shanghai's electrolytic copper sales sentiment was 2.74 and procurement sentiment was 2.57, showing a decline and an increase respectively. It is expected that today's spot discount will remain at the current level [2] Important Information Summary - Geopolitical: US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. Economic data: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 5,000 to 210,000, and the number of continued claims decreased by 32,000 to 1.819 million. The OECD expects the global economic growth rate to be 2.9% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, with the US economic growth slowing from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027 and an inflation rate of 4.2% in 2026 [3] Supply - Side Information Mining End - Jubilee Metals Group launched the second - phase drilling of the Molefe copper mine to define the extension of the eastern mineralization zone. Boliden's Garpenberg copper mine was affected by an earthquake, with an expected EBITDA impact of about 400 million Swedish kronor in Q1 2026, and the production scale was significantly reduced [4] Smelting and Import - Mitsubishi Materials will stop the copper concentrate processing business of its Onahama smelter and refinery by the end of March 2027 due to intensified overseas competition and a significant decline in TC/RCs [4] Consumption Information - In January 2026, China's copper foil imports were 7,133.71 tons, a 15.77% year - on - year increase and a 0.69% month - on - month decrease; in February, imports were 6,442.72 tons, a 9.55% year - on - year increase and a 9.69% month - on - month decrease. From January to February, the cumulative imports were 13,576.44 tons, a 12.73% year - on - year increase. In January, exports were 6,136.04 tons, a 94.70% year - on - year increase and a 13.33% month - on - month increase; in February, exports were 4,820.50 tons, a 59.68% year - on - year increase and a 21.44% month - on - month decrease. From January to February, the cumulative exports were 10,956.54 tons, a 77.57% year - on - year increase. After the significant decline in copper prices, downstream procurement意愿 increased, and some enterprises adjusted processing fees and margin ratios [5][6] Inventory and Warehouse Receipt Information - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 350 tons to 359,825 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 5,670 tons to 246,441 tons. On March 26, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 427,400 tons, a decrease of 40,300 tons from the previous week [6]