宏观环境变化频繁，镍不锈钢持续反弹态势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The price of Shanghai nickel has support from the cost of nickel ore due to Indonesian policies but is suppressed by the macro - situation and supply - demand pattern, making it difficult to have a definite one - way market. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern in the short term [1][4]. - The stainless steel price is mainly affected by the nickel price. The supply growth expectation is stronger than the demand side, but there is still cost support. It is expected to follow the nickel price trend and maintain a shock in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 138,750 yuan/ton and closed at 135,860 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.41% compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 412,306 (-48,075) lots, and the open interest was 179,895 (-8,929) lots [1]. - The nickel market is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. Policy - wise, the nickel ore mining quota has decreased from 3.79 billion tons to 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, leading to a tight supply at the ore end. Fundamentally, the supply output continues to rise, and the inventory at home and abroad is increasing, with sufficient market supply. The demand side has stable support as stainless steel mills' profits improve and production resumes after the festival, and new - energy vehicle production and sales meet expectations but are in the off - season with limited month - on - month improvement. Also, the Middle - East situation affects sulfur supply and raises the production cost of nickel [1]. News - Nickel Industries Limited's Indonesian Hengjaya Mine has suspended operations due to a personnel casualty accident. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister may relax the production targets of coal and nickel in 2026. The US Department of Defense is formulating a military plan against Iran. The news has mixed impacts on nickel, mainly suppressing it [2]. - In Indonesia, nickel ore supply is tightening, and the operation uncertainty on the Big K Island increases due to the mine accident and the approaching rainy season. In the Philippines, the nickel ore quotation is firm, with the 1.3% ore CIF quoted at $65/wet ton [2]. Spot - The nickel price is strongly running during the day, but the spot trading is average. The market has shifted to the 2605 contract. The premium of Jinchuan nickel has dropped significantly due to cost reduction, and other brands have also slightly declined. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 57,593 (-12) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 282,240 (-216) tons [3]. Strategy - In the short term, Shanghai nickel is expected to maintain an interval shock. The unilateral strategy is mainly interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened and closed at 14,390 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 183,602 (-38,355) lots, and the open interest was 120,397 (-4,171) lots [5]. - The stainless steel price is mainly affected by the nickel price. In terms of fundamentals, the total domestic stainless steel crude steel production in March is expected to reach 3.5364 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 36.5% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The consumption in March is in a slow recovery process, and it is expected to continue to pick up in April, which provides bottom support for the price [5]. - Driven by the high - level operation of the futures market, the confidence in the spot market has recovered, and the inquiry and trading activity have increased. However, the downstream acceptance of high - priced goods is limited, and the spot price increase is relatively moderate. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 14,500 (+100) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market is 14,450 (+100) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 130 - 330 yuan/ton [5]. Strategy - The short - term stainless steel is expected to follow the nickel price trend and maintain a shock. The unilateral strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5][6].