轮胎厂开工率继续小幅回升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a cautious and bullish rating for both RU and NR, as well as BR [10]. 2. Core View of the Report - For natural rubber, although domestic production is expected to gradually increase, overseas supply is still in the off - season. Supply is slightly rising but pressure is not obvious, and the cost - side support is strong. The tire factory's opening rate has increased, but factors such as reduced profit margins and the situation of the Strait of Hormuz may suppress future demand. After the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber is repaired, the strength of synthetic rubber will drive up the price of natural rubber. - For BR, upstream production losses have led to a decrease in supply. The tire factory's opening rate is increasing, but there are also factors suppressing future demand. The contraction of upstream supply will improve the supply - demand situation of BR, and prices are expected to remain strong before the Strait of Hormuz is unblocked [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 16,460 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 13,635 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 17,975 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 15,600 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 2,010 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,975 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 18,000 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - Tire Exports: From January to February 2026, the cumulative export volume of truck and bus tires was 73.01 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07%. The export regions showed obvious differentiation, with the export increment in Africa being the most prominent and the export center shifting to emerging markets [2]. - Automobile Production and Sales: In February 2026, China's automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million respectively, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.7% and 23.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.5% and 15.2% [2]. - Rubber Imports: From January to February 2026, China imported a total of 1.404 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% [2]. - Heavy - Duty Truck Sales: In February 2026, the wholesale sales of heavy - duty trucks in China were about 75,000, a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% and a year - on - year decrease of about 8%. From January to February, the cumulative sales of the heavy - duty truck industry exceeded 180,000, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [2]. - Global Natural Rubber: In January 2026, the global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 4.3% to 1.409 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the consumption was expected to increase by 4.4% to 1.287 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The global natural rubber production in 2026 was expected to increase by 2.2% year - on - year to 15.324 million tons [3]. - Thai Natural Rubber Exports: In January 2026, Thailand exported 214,000 tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The export to China was 77,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% [3]. - EU Passenger Car Sales: In January 2026, the EU passenger car market sales decreased by 3.9% to 799,625 units [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Price Difference: On March 26, 2026, the RU basis was - 160 yuan/ton (- 30), the price difference between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 860 yuan/ton (- 50), and the NR basis was 245.00 yuan/ton (- 7.00) [4]. - Raw Materials: The price of Thai smoked sheets was 76.66 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.77), the price of Thai rubber latex was 77.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 58.50 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), and the price difference between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 18.50 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00) [5]. - Opening Rate: The opening rate of all - steel tires was 72.24% (+ 0.03%), and the opening rate of semi - steel tires was 79.37% (+ 0.05%) [6]. - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 685,569 tons (+ 8,000), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 1,360,805 tons (- 4,066), the RU futures inventory was 125,440 tons (+ 4,600), and the NR futures inventory was 48,082 tons (- 1,209) [6]. Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and Price Difference: On March 26, 2026, the BR basis was - 175 yuan/ton (+ 345). The ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 18,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 18,500 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 18,000 yuan/ton (+ 400), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 17,700 yuan/ton (+ 600), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 1,901 yuan/ton (+ 457) [7]. - Opening Rate: The opening rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 53.19% (- 12.39%) [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 9,260 tons (+ 650), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 32,250 tons (- 1,750) [9]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a cautious and bullish view due to factors such as the increase in domestic production, the off - season of overseas supply, cost - side support, and the improvement of downstream demand [10]. - For BR, also maintain a cautious and bullish view. The contraction of upstream supply and the improvement of downstream demand will lead to a better supply - demand situation, and prices are expected to remain strong [10].