主力合约估值逐步清晰，远月合约关注美以伊军事冲突进展

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation of the main contract EC2604 is gradually becoming clear, but due to high geopolitical risks and the game between shipping companies' price - holding expectations and actual landing prices in the off - season, the volatility of the EC2604 contract is expected to increase. Investors are advised to closely follow the spot market and operate flexibly, considering the profit - loss ratio [4]. - The contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August are expected to have strong performance, but the actual freight rates are still uncertain. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of 2026, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand side of Asia - Europe trade. However, investors need to pay attention to the impact of oil price fluctuations on the global economy and export demand [5][6]. - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Mandeb Strait may have an upward driving effect on the far - month contracts, and continuous tracking is required [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Futures Price - As of March 26, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 38,383.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 28,823.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1771.40, 2043.60, 2417.30, 2535.20, 2412.40, 1696.90, 1577.20, and 1750.00 respectively [8]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from different shipping companies: For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk Shanghai - Rotterdam WEEK14 weekly quote was 1640/2640, and WEEK15 was 1465/2350; HPL's shipping date quotes in the first half of April ranged from 2635 - 3035 dollars/FEU, and 2135/3535 in the second half. MSC's shipping date quote in the second half of March was 2840 dollars/FEU, and 1706/2852 in the first week of April. ONE's shipping date price in April was 3061 dollars/FEU. Ocean Alliance's CMA Shanghai - Rotterdam shipping date quotes in the first half of April ranged from 3993 - 4293 dollars/FEU, and 3409/4793 in the second half; EMC's shipping date quote in the first half of April was 2030/3060; OOCL's shipping date quote in the first half of April ranged from 2847 - 2880 dollars/FEU [1]. - On March 20, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1636 dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 2054 dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2922 dollars/FEU. On March 23, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1693.26 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1024.11 points [8]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. Among them, 6 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total of 86,000 TEU were delivered, and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a total of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - Dynamic supply: For the China - European base port route, the average weekly capacity in the remaining 2 weeks of March was 296,500 TEU, with WEEK 13/14 capacities of 292,000 and 300,900 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April was 311,900 TEU, with WEEK15/16/17/18 capacities of 337,000, 266,700, 306,300, and 337,400 TEU respectively. The average monthly capacity in May was 305,700 TEU, with WEEK19/20/21/22 capacities of 338,600, 300,900, 289,700, and 293,900 TEU respectively. There were 3 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in April, and 6 TBNs in May [3]. 4. Supply Chain - On March 25, COSCO Shipping Lines Co., Ltd. resumed new booking business (ordinary containers) for routes from the Far East to Middle - Eastern Gulf countries such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, and Iraq. However, the container ships will not pass through the Strait of Hormuz for the time being. Instead, they will transport containers to ports on the east side of the strait such as Oman's Suhar Port, the UAE's Port of Khor Fakkan and Port of Fujairah, and Saudi Arabia's Jeddah Port, and then transfer the containers to these countries by land [7]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the demand side of Asia - Europe trade has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10%. After the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for the peak - season contracts. It is necessary to pay attention to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports of domestic goods due to concerns about future inflation, which may drive up domestic export demand. At the same time, it is also necessary to guard against the expectation of a global economic recession caused by excessive increases in oil prices [6].