美国生柴政策即将落地，油脂价格震荡运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. The international crude oil oscillated strongly, strengthening the demand expectation for biodiesel raw materials. Coupled with the upcoming implementation of the US biodiesel policy, the oil prices will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to policy changes in the later stage [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 9,614.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +104 yuan and a change rate of +1.09%; the closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 8,646.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +96.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.12%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,840.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +133.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.37% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9,580.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +100.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.05%, and the spot basis was P05 - 34.00, with a month - on - month change of - 4.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,810.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +90.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +1.03%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 164.00, with a month - on - month change of - 6.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10,370.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +130.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.27%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 530.00, with a month - on - month change of - 3.00 yuan [1] 3.2 Market Information Summary - Brazil's Paraná state: The rural economic research institute (Deral) expects the soybean crop output in the 2025/26 season to be 21.89 million tons, lower than the February estimate of 22.12 million tons; the output of the second - season corn crop in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 17.54 million tons, slightly higher than the February estimate of 17.50 million tons; the output of the first - season corn crop is expected to be 3.80 million tons, higher than the February estimate of 3.60 million tons. In 2026, the wheat planting area in Paraná state is expected to be 775,600 hectares, a 6% decrease from the previous year; the wheat output is expected to be 2.53 million tons, a 12% decrease from the previous year [2] - Malaysia: According to the data of the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from March 1 - 25, 2026, the palm oil yield per unit area in Malaysia decreased by 9.74% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.28% month - on - month compared with the same period last month, and the output decreased by 11.21% month - on - month compared with the same period last month [2] - International soybean prices: The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (April shipment) is 516 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (April shipment) is 510 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (May shipment) is 484 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the Mexican Gulf (April shipment) is 231 cents/bushel, unchanged compared with the previous trading day; the US West Coast (April shipment) is 215 cents/bushel, unchanged compared with the previous trading day; the Brazilian port (May shipment) is 144 cents/bushel, a decrease of 5 cents/bushel compared with the previous trading day [2]