地缘局势仍紧张，丙烯价格仍有支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains tense, with no substantial progress in the US-Iran peace talks. Israel's attacks on Iran have further escalated the situation, causing supply issues for olefin raw materials such as crude oil, naphtha, and propane, which in turn support the rebound of the futures market [2]. - The supply of raw material propane has tightened again, increasing the expectation of PDH device maintenance. The supply of propylene has tightened due to the shutdown of PDH devices and the reduction of refinery cracking device loads. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices, but some have reduced their loads due to profit issues. Overall, the short - term supply and demand of propylene remain tight, and the price of propylene is still supported before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - The closing price of the propylene main contract is 8851 yuan/ton (+99), the East China spot price of propylene is 9000 yuan/ton (-250), the North China spot price of propylene is 8800 yuan/ton (-185), the East China basis of propylene is 149 yuan/ton (-349), and the Shandong basis of propylene is -51 yuan/ton (-284) [1]. - Relevant figures include the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, Shandong basis, futures 05 - 06 contract spread, 05 - 07 contract spread, and market prices in East, Shandong, and South China [5][6][11][16][18]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization - The propylene capacity utilization rate is 71% (-1%), the propylene CFR - Japan naphtha CFR is 282 US dollars/ton (+136), the propylene CFR - 1.2 propane CFR is -116 US dollars/ton (+85), and the import profit is -1285 yuan/ton (-430) [1]. - Relevant figures include propylene CFR - naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization, naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil main refinery capacity utilization, South Korea FOB - China CFR, and propylene import profit [5][21][26][30][32][35]. 3. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization - PP powder capacity utilization is 22% (-5.61%), production profit is -250 yuan/ton (+135); epoxy propane capacity utilization is 74% (-1%), production profit is 2288 yuan/ton (+454); n - butanol capacity utilization is 81% (-1%), production profit is 1007 yuan/ton (-185); octanol capacity utilization is 89% (+1%), production profit is 845 yuan/ton (-178); acrylic acid capacity utilization is 77% (+4%), production profit is 4360 yuan/ton (+178); acrylonitrile capacity utilization is 76% (+0%), production profit is 390 yuan/ton (+167); phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 87% (-1%), production profit is 76 yuan/ton (+150) [1]. - Relevant figures include the production profit and capacity utilization of PP powder, epoxy propane, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [5][39][41][46][53][54][57][61]. 4. Propylene Inventory - The in - plant inventory of propylene is 44560 tons (-1800) [1]. - Relevant figures include propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [5][64]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low prices. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None [3]