资金面充裕，国债期货全线收涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month. The market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations in the Middle East, inflation expectations, cross - quarter funding, unchanged LPR, and uncertainties in foreign capital inflows due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and global trade uncertainties [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price Indicators: China's CPI (monthly) has a 1.00% month - on - month increase and a 1.30% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.40% month - on - month increase and a - 0.90% year - on - year decrease [9]. - Monthly Economic Indicators: The social financing scale is 451.40 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.29 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%. M2 year - on - year is 9.00% with no change. The manufacturing PMI is 49.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.30% and a decline rate of 0.61% [10]. - Daily Economic Indicators: The US dollar index is 99.94, with a day - on - day increase of 0.32 and a growth rate of 0.32%. The US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9184, with a day - on - day increase of 0.012 and a growth rate of 0.17%. SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.44, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.21%. DR007 is 1.44, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.06%. R007 is 1.55, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.55%. The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.40%. The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.40% [10]. 3.2 Treasury and Treasury Futures Market Overview Relevant figures include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury futures, the price change rate of each treasury futures variety, the precipitation fund trend of each treasury futures variety, the position ratio of each treasury futures variety, the net position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury futures variety, and the long - short position ratio of the top 20 in each treasury futures variety [12][13][17]. 3.3 Money Market Funding Situation - Fiscal Aspect: From January to February, the fiscal operation started smoothly. General public budget revenue increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 3.6% year - on - year. The revenue side shows that enterprise - related taxes performed better than the household sector. VAT increased by 4.7%, while consumption tax and individual income tax declined, indicating weak household consumption. Government fund revenue decreased by 16% year - on - year due to the drag of land transfer, and expenditure increased by 16% year - on - year due to the accelerated issuance of special bonds. The economy still shows a pattern of "strong supply and weak demand", and the foundation for the recovery of the real estate and consumption sectors is not yet solid [2]. - Financial Aspect: In February, the overall financial data showed the characteristics of "stable total amount and differentiated structure". The credit growth rate continued to decline to 6.0%, the social financing growth rate remained flat at 8.2%, M1 rebounded to 5.9% driven by the Spring Festival dislocation and unexpected consumption, and M2 remained flat at 9.0% due to increased fiscal expenditure. In terms of structure, medium - and long - term corporate loans increased year - on - year under the pre - emptive policy, but household credit demand continued to be weak, especially the medium - and long - term loans showed a net decrease again, indicating that the willingness of the real economy to increase leverage still needs to be repaired [2]. - Central Bank Operation: On March 26, 2026, the central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 224 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - Money Market: The repurchase rates of the main tenors 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.320%, 1.438%, 1.506%, and 1.503% respectively, and the repurchase rates have declined recently [2]. 3.4 Spread Situation Relevant figures include the inter - period spread trend of each treasury futures variety, and the spread between the spot bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (such as 4TS - T, 2TS - TF, 2TF - T, 3T - TL, 2TS - 3TF + T) [31][32][34]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Futures Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of two - year treasury futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [42][44]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Futures Relevant figures include the implied interest rate of the main contract of five - year treasury futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [46][58]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Futures Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [53][57]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Futures Relevant figures include the implied yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury futures and the treasury bond maturity yield, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the two - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [61][64]. 3.9 Strategies - Unilateral Strategy: The repurchase rate has declined, and the price of treasury futures is oscillating [4]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2606 basis [4]. - Hedging Strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].