碳酸锂周度库存增加，盘面价格高位震荡-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rebound in the lithium carbonate futures market is affected by the continuous export ban in Zimbabwe. The resumption time of production in Jianxiaowo and Zimbabwe is still unclear, and the supply - demand imbalance with tight supply remains unchanged. Although the new - energy vehicle demand decreased year - on - year in March, it has improved week - on - week, showing resilience and providing support for the lithium carbonate price. The inventory of lithium carbonate has reached an inflection point this week, and the futures price is expected to correct, but the inventory is still at a low level, and the supply - demand tight situation is expected to continue in the first half of the year [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 26, 2026, the opening price of the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 was 159,120 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 157,200 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.64% compared with the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 260,930 lots, and the open interest was 246,385 lots, with a decrease of 5,572 lots compared with the previous trading day. The current basis was - 5,800 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 30,751 lots, a decrease of 709 lots compared with the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 151,000 - 162,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4,000 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 148,000 - 159,000 yuan/ton, also an increase of 4,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,210 US dollars/ton, an increase of 55 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day [1]. - According to SMM statistics, most lithium salt plants have resumed production, and the domestic supply is generally stable, with an increase in supply this week. The weekly total output of lithium carbonate was 24,814 tons, including 15,314 tons from spodumene, 3,227 tons from mica, 3,715 tons from salt lakes, and 2,558 tons from recycling [1]. Inventory - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 99,489 tons, a week - on - week increase of 616 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 17,332 tons, a week - on - week increase of 724 tons; the downstream inventory was 46,657 tons, a week - on - week increase of 552 tons; other inventories were 35,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 660 tons. The inventory of lithium carbonate has reached an inflection point this week [2]. Strategy - The futures market has been fluctuating sharply recently. The war in the Middle East has increased the volatility of commodities. The prices of energy - chemical and non - ferrous metals have been rising and falling alternately. Today, the oil price rebounded, and the lithium carbonate price rose first and then fell. Since the inventory of lithium carbonate has reached an inflection point this week, the futures price is expected to correct. However, the inventory is still at a low level, and the supply - demand tight situation is expected to continue in the first half of the year. In the future, continue to pay attention to the resumption of production in Zimbabwe and Jianxiaowo, the marginal changes in inventory, and the atmosphere of the commodity market. In the short term, it is recommended to mainly conduct range operations [3]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - term operations are recommended. - Inter - period: No relevant strategies provided. - Inter - commodity: No relevant strategies provided. - Spot - futures: No relevant strategies provided. - Options: No relevant strategies provided [5].