美伊和谈陷入僵局，油价波动率维持高位

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The Iran situation and oil prices are currently the main factors driving commodity price fluctuations. There is an inverse correlation between the non - energy sectors such as the non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors and oil prices. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - narrative changes due to rising inflation and recession risks. The report suggests going long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - The Iran - US peace talks are at an impasse, and the situation in the Middle East has escalated. The main affected commodities are crude oil, LPG, and shipping. Rising oil prices have driven the oil - chemical and oilseed sectors and raised concerns about inflation and economic recession. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a longer time, oil prices and corresponding sectors may rise further. The disruption of natural gas supply in the Middle East may have a more profound impact on Asia - Pacific countries [1] Global Interest Rate Situation - The Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate and removed the "rate cut" wording. The Bank of Japan kept the policy unchanged but may raise interest rates if the economic outlook is achieved. The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate at 2%, but its policy stance has become tougher. The rise in oil prices, cost increases, and the increase in global interest - rate hike expectations have formed a copper - oil seesaw pattern [2] Domestic Policy and Economic Situation - The 2026 government work report proposed an economic growth target of 4.5% - 5%, a deficit rate of about 4%, a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan, and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. China's economic data shows a mixed picture, with positive performance in exports, industrial added value, and consumer goods retail, but negative performance in real estate investment and sales [3] Commodity Sector Analysis - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity price fluctuations. There is an inverse correlation between the non - ferrous metals and precious metals sectors and oil prices. The IEA has approved the release of a record - high 400 million barrels of crude oil reserves, but there may still be a supply gap. Oil price increases have a significant driving effect on oil - chemical products. The EU has simplified some natural gas import rules, and Russia is considering an early gas cut - off to Europe. The oilseed sector in agriculture is also affected by the spill - over effect of oil prices. The black metal sector should focus on domestic policy expectations and the possibility of low - valuation repair [4] Strategy - Go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products at low prices [5] News - US House Speaker Johnson said the Iran war is "nearly over and the goal has been achieved", but the Trump administration is reported to be sending ground troops to the Middle East. Iran's Foreign Minister said Iran has demonstrated control over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Islamic Parliament is seeking a bill to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Russia's President Putin signed a decree to restrict gold exports from May 1 [7]