海内外库存同步下滑

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market. However, social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the same period in the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but purchases remain cautious. - The TC of domestic and imported zinc ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the TC is expected to continue rising. - The pressure on the supply side is increasing, and domestic inventory accumulation is expected to continue even during the peak consumption season. If the peak consumption season fails to meet expectations, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend compared to other non - ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to the impact of overseas inventories [5] Key Data Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$20.74 per ton. - SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,840 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -65 yuan/ton. - SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 22,920 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -30 yuan/ton. - Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 22,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of -85 yuan/ton [2] Futures Market - On March 26, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,010 yuan/ton and closed at 23,070 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 96,062 lots, and the open interest was 103,163 lots. The highest price during the day was 23,105 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,865 yuan/ton [3] Inventory - As of March 26, 2026, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 249,500 tons, a decrease of 5,700 tons from the previous period. - As of March 26, 2026, the LME zinc inventory was 115,650 tons, a decrease of 825 tons from the previous trading day [4]