海外氧化铝成交依旧偏强

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [10] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, although there are supply disturbances overseas and transportation is still difficult, the long - term fundamentals of supply and demand are still optimistic. Downstream processors can buy for hedging when prices are low. For alumina, the supply - demand remains in surplus, and the price will fluctuate with crude oil in the short term and move up due to raw material disturbances in the long term. [7][9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Aluminum Spot: On March 26, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 23,510 yuan/ton, a change of - 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium/discount of East China aluminum was - 110 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 23,460 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by 10 yuan/ton to - 160 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 23,440 yuan/ton, a change of - 270 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by - 5 yuan/ton to - 180 yuan/ton [2] - Aluminum Futures: On March 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 23,890 yuan/ton and closed at 23,725 yuan/ton, a change of - 125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 23,900 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 23,615 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 236,054 lots, and the open interest was 259,986 lots. As of March 26, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.349 million tons, a change of 12,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory was 404,742 tons, a change of - 69 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 423,075 tons, a change of - 3,675 tons from the previous trading day [3] - Alumina Spot: On March 26, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,755 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,795 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,755 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,800 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 312 US dollars/ton [3] - Alumina Futures: On March 26, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,950 yuan/ton and closed at 2,931 yuan/ton, a change of - 34 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, with a change rate of - 1.15%. The highest price was 2,963 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,922 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 308,000 lots, and the open interest was 223,006 lots [3] - Aluminum Alloy Price: On March 26, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil - grade primary aluminum was 17,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical primary aluminum was 18,300 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 23,700 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [4] - Aluminum Alloy Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 44,900 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 80,400 tons [5] - Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit: The theoretical total cost was 23,135 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 665 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Electrolytic Aluminum: Bahrain Aluminum has not imported alumina through the Red Sea. If the raw material problem cannot be solved, the 250,000 - ton No. 4 production line may be shut down. There have been frequent production cuts overseas due to insufficient diesel or energy supply, and there are even energy - saving orders. Although the aluminum industry has not been affected yet, overseas disturbances still exist, and short - term disturbances are more likely to be on the supply side. There has been a substantial production cut in the Middle East. Although there is a possibility of rerouting aluminum exports, transportation is still difficult, and overseas inventories are still declining. It is too early to worry about the US entering an interest - rate hike cycle. Attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East, and the long - term fundamentals of supply and demand are still optimistic. Downstream processors can buy for hedging when prices are low [7] - Alumina: Two transactions of a total of 60,000 tons of alumina were made in Jamaica, with transaction prices of FOB 351 and 355 US dollars/ton for May and June shipments respectively. The export limit policy of Guinea's bauxite has not clearly stated the export volume. Currently, a large - scale mine has stopped one excavator, with a daily output reduction of 9,000 tons. Although it is not clear whether the policy will cause a shortage of bauxite supply, the policy is clearly oriented towards price limits, and the cost support has been significantly increased. The supply - demand of alumina remains in surplus, and the social inventory is still rising slightly. The prices in domestic and international markets are strengthening simultaneously. After the decline in the futures price, it is basically at par with the spot price. In the short term, the alumina price fluctuates with the crude oil price, and the risk of futures premium decreases after the price decline. In the long term, the price center will move up due to raw material disturbances. The supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, and the social inventory will continue to increase. Electrolytic aluminum plants have sufficient raw material inventories, and the winter - storage expectation is low. The current futures price discount to the spot price will ease the warehouse - receipt pressure but cannot change the inventory pressure [8][9]