化工日报：EG主港本周延续累库，关注拐点-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - EG main port continued to accumulate inventory this week, and the inflection point should be noted [1] - EG load continued to decline, and port inventory started to decrease [1] - From March, the inventory will start to decrease, and the expected decline in April will increase. With the import volume reaching a low level and the increase in overseas exports, the depletion of ethylene glycol social inventory will significantly accelerate [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 5,058 yuan/ton (a change of +22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +0.44%), the spot price in the East China market of EG was 4,988 yuan/ton (a change of +125 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, a range of +2.57%), and the basis of EG East China spot was -45 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of +2 yuan/ton) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -290 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month decrease of -8 US dollars/ton), and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was 136 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of -391 yuan/ton) [1] - Due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, the domestic ethylene glycol load decreased; currently, the overseas load is at a low level, and China's import of EG from the Middle East accounts for a relatively large proportion. Under the influence of the situation in Iran, there is an expectation of further reduction in imports [2] International Price Difference - The international price difference of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR. However, no specific price difference data is provided [21] Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The polyester and weaving loads are difficult to continue to increase, and downstream acceptance of high-priced raw materials is low. The voices of production cuts are increasing. Recently, the sales of filament have been continuously sluggish, and the inventory of filaments and staple fibers has rapidly accumulated. The polyester load is lower than that of the same period last year. If the downstream continues not to replenish inventory, the load may decline [2] Inventory Data - According to the data released by CCF every Monday, the inventory of the MEG East China main port was 1.039 million tons (a month-on-month increase of 28,000 tons); the main port slightly accumulated inventory last week [1] - According to CCF data, the total planned arrivals at the East China main port this week are 117,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary port are 10,000 tons. The inventory is expected to remain stable [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on hedging at low levels. Pay attention to the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the changes in ethylene glycol plants [3] - Inter-period: 5 - 9 positive spread under the influence of supply [3] - Inter-variety: None [3]