下游蓄电池企业刚需采购，市场成交尚可

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic mine supply is still relatively tight, and smelters have a low willingness to purchase high-silver mines. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. However, the energy storage battery sector performs outstandingly, supported by the demand from mobile base stations and data centers. The operating rates of relevant enterprises generally reach 80 - 100%. The industry is optimistic about the second half of the year, and some enterprises are preparing for capacity expansion. Currently, the lead price is treated with a volatile mindset, and the Pb2506 contract ranges from 16,300 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On March 26, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$36.18/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,300 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,400 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 16,325 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 0 yuan/ton to 16,350 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference changed by 0 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,775 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price changed by 0 yuan/ton to 9,875 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price changed by -25 yuan/ton to 10,075 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On March 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,505 yuan/ton and closed at 16,460 yuan/ton, a change of -35 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 57,200 lots, a change of -381 lots compared with the previous trading day, and the position for the whole trading day was 75,091 lots, a change of -4,034 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,570 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,385 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,390 yuan/ton and closed at 16,365 yuan/ton, a 0.27% decrease compared with the afternoon closing price of the previous day [2] - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, holders quoted at a discount of 120 - 50 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2604 or 2605 lead contracts for ex-factory sales, and the prices with current-month invoices were relatively high. In Hunan, smelters and traders maintained premium sales, and the scattered orders were sold at a premium of 30 - 60 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead average price for ex-factory sales, with some rigid demand transactions. In the Tianjin market, holders quoted at a discount of 110 - 80 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2604 lead contract for self-pickup transactions. The lead price continued the slight upward trend, and downstream battery enterprises made rigid purchases. The regional transactions in the spot market were acceptable [2] Inventory - On March 26, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 58,000 tons, a change of -5,300 tons compared with the same period last week. As of March 27, the LME lead inventory was 283,100 tons, a change of -50 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]