能源成本支撑下，价格高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In April, the ferroalloy market is expected to see a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Energy costs support the prices, leading to high - level oscillations. For ferrosilicon, the supply is currently low but is expected to rise due to profit recovery, and the demand (hot metal production) is on the rise. For silicomanganese, the supply is relatively stable with some new capacity coming online and potential self - imposed production cuts, and the demand (steel production) is expected to seasonally rebound. The high - level crude oil prices support the cost of manganese ore [2][3][72][74] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Outlook - Ferrosilicon: Supply is currently low, but with the recent sharp rise in spot prices and profit recovery, production is expected to increase. In April, hot metal production is still in an upward channel, so the fundamentals are expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand. Although the sharp rise in international energy prices has not significantly driven up the electricity prices in the main production areas, there is an expectation of rising energy costs, which supports the ferrosilicon price to oscillate at a high level [2][72][74] - Silicomanganese: The production of sample enterprises has decreased slightly, and some new capacity has been put into operation, with overall stable supply. Some industry associations have called for self - imposed production cuts, but the actual implementation needs attention. Steel production is expected to continue its seasonal rebound. The Narelle hurricane did not cause significant damage to port shipping facilities, and the emotional stimulus is expected to gradually subside. However, high - level crude oil prices increase the transportation cost of manganese ore, and the shortage of diesel in mines may also affect mining and transportation. So, there is still a bottom - level support for manganese ore before the energy crisis is resolved [2][74] 3.2 Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In March, ferroalloy futures prices rose sharply due to multiple emergencies. The military strike on Iran by the US and Israel in late February led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices and an increase in the prices of international coal and natural gas. As energy - intensive products, the valuation of ferroalloys also increased. In late March, Hurricane Narelle hit the main manganese ore shipping port in Australia, raising the expectation of short - term supply shortage [7] 3.2.2 Supply and Demand in April - Supply: In February, the output of silicomanganese (187 enterprises) was 774,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. In late March, some new capacity was put into operation, and the output in March is expected to increase slightly. The output of ferrosilicon (136 enterprises) in February was 394,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 12%, and the output in March is also expected to increase. As of the week of March 27, the operating rate of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 27.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%, and the daily output was 102,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons. The operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 32.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.08%, and the daily output was 191,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,000 tons [27] - Demand: Affected by the temporary environmental protection restrictions on steel mills in the northern region during the Two Sessions, hot metal production first decreased and then increased in March. As of the week of March 27, the daily average pig iron output of 247 sample steel mills was 2.3109 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,400 tons. In April, according to the blast furnace maintenance plan, steel mills are still in the seasonal resumption of production trend, and hot metal production is expected to maintain a slight upward trend. Overall, the situation of increasing supply and demand is expected in April. Although the inventory inflection point of steel has appeared and the apparent demand has continued to rise, the slow destocking of hot - rolled coils may limit the height of steel mill复产 [27][30] 3.2.3 Inventory Situation - In March, the overall inventory of alloy plants was slightly relieved. As of the week of March 27, the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 54,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons; the inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 372,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,000 tons. Generally, the ferrosilicon inventory is relatively normal, while the silicomanganese inventory is relatively high, and high inventory is still the main pressure suppressing the price increase. For downstream inventory, as the hot metal production of steel mills gradually recovers, the available days of raw material inventory have slightly decreased month - on - month. However, due to the relatively low absolute value of steel profits and the high level of available days in the past three years, steel mills are expected to mainly maintain just - in - time procurement in April [42] 3.2.4 Cost Situation - Since the large - scale strike on Iran by the US and Israel at the end of February, the prices of energy such as crude oil and natural gas have risen sharply, and the international steam coal price has also risen, driving the domestic steam coal price to stop falling and rebound. Although the sharp rise in international energy prices has not significantly driven up the electricity prices in the main production areas, there is an expectation of rising energy costs, which supports the alloy price. For manganese ore, the port inventory is slightly higher than that of last year but lower than the average of the past four years. The Narelle hurricane did not cause significant damage to port shipping facilities, and the emotional stimulus is expected to gradually subside. However, high - level crude oil prices increase the transportation cost of manganese ore, and the shortage of diesel in mines may also affect mining and transportation. So, there is still a bottom - level support for manganese ore before the energy crisis is resolved [58] 3.3 Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral Strategy: The fundamentals show increasing supply and demand, and energy costs support the bottom. Overall, the price will oscillate at a high level [3] - Arbitrage Strategy: Wait and see [3] - Option Strategy: Sell put options on rallies [3]