黑色金属数据日报-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For steel, the market sentiment has cooled, and there is an opportunity to go long on the basis of hot-rolled coils. The supply and demand pattern is still good, but the cost support logic has loosened, and a sideways trading strategy is recommended. Consider basis trading or cash-and-carry arbitrage, with hot-rolled coils being the optimal choice [1]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the market is experiencing repeated sentiment and increased price volatility. The cost is supported by coal and manganese ore, but the demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and supply pressure is emerging. The market is in a range-bound state [2][4]. - For coking coal and coke, the situation remains volatile, and risk control is the main focus. The first price increase for spot goods may be postponed to the end of the month. The futures market is dominated by the Middle East situation, and the price may rise or fall depending on the development of the situation. The 05 contract is weaker than the 09 contract [4]. - For iron ore, the price is mainly trading in a high-range. Due to the undetermined negotiation between CITIC Metal and BHP, the price is unlikely to decline significantly in the short term, nor is it likely to break through upward. It is recommended to trade within the range rather than chasing high or shorting [5]. Summary by Content Steel - On March 26, the closing prices of far - month contracts such as RB2610, JM2609, etc., and near - month contracts like RB2605, JM2605, etc., showed different price changes. For example, the far - month RB2610 closed at 3313.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.00 yuan and a decline rate of - 0.28%. The near - month RB2605 closed at 3128.00 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 14.00 yuan and a decline rate of - 1.13%. The spot prices of Tianjin, Guangzhou, Tangshan, and Shanghai also had corresponding changes [1]. - The market sentiment has cooled, the production and sales data improved marginally on Thursday, and the supply - demand pattern is still good. The peak of plate demand has been reached, while the building materials still have room to grow, with the expected peak in April. Due to geopolitical issues, the cost support logic has loosened, and a sideways trading strategy is recommended. Consider basis trading or cash - and - carry arbitrage, with hot - rolled coils being the optimal choice [1]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Although the impact of geopolitical conflicts on ferrous alloys is mainly through sentiment, coal price increases may support costs. The power cost accounts for a relatively high proportion, and the supply of manganese ore is affected by the typhoon in Australia. The demand from steel mills recovers slowly, and new production capacity in the north is being put into operation, increasing supply pressure. The futures market is strong due to sentiment, but the spot market lags behind, and the basis weakens. The market is in a range - bound state [2][4]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the spot side, the first price increase may be postponed to the end of the month, but the market atmosphere is still positive. The prices of coking coal in auctions are rising, and the prices of port - traded coke and coking coal index have increased. The downstream market is reluctant to accept high - priced Mongolian coal, and the trading atmosphere is cold. On the futures side, the Middle East situation dominates the market. The oil price is in an unstable state, and there are two possible trends, which will directly affect the price of coking coal. The 05 contract is weaker than the 09 contract, mainly due to the delivery logic [4]. Iron Ore - This week, the iron ore price is trading in a high - range. Due to the undetermined negotiation between CITIC Metal and BHP, the price is unlikely to decline significantly in the short term, nor is it likely to break through upward because of the high port inventory and oversupply. The change of BHP's CEO may affect the negotiation. It is not recommended to chase long positions on the futures market. The price is likely to trade in a high - range, and it is recommended to trade within the range [5].