新强联（300850）：TRB出货放量支撑业绩高景气

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 62.00 [5][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 4.63 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 820 million, up 1151.4% year-on-year, driven by increased shipments and a higher proportion of high-value TRB main bearings [1][2]. - The revenue from wind power products reached RMB 3.58 billion in 2025, a 72.7% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 30%, up 13 percentage points [2]. - The company is expected to increase its TRB main bearing penetration rate to 80% in 2026 and 90% in 2027, benefiting from the rising quality requirements of OEMs [2]. - The company is actively expanding into the gearbox bearing market, achieving a breakthrough with revenue of RMB 10 million in 2025, and is expected to gradually increase supply through customer validation and production ramp-up [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts, estimating net profits for 2026 and 2027 at RMB 1.28 billion and RMB 1.50 billion, respectively, with an additional forecast for 2028 at RMB 1.63 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 3.10, RMB 3.62, and RMB 3.94 [4][9]. - The report assigns a P/E ratio of 20x for 2026, reflecting the company's significant first-mover advantage in TRB bearings and leading position in domestic gearbox bearing substitution, with a target price of RMB 62 [4][11].