蛋白数据日报-20260327

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - As of March 21, Brazil's soybean harvest rate was 67.7%, compared to 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 66.4%. The selling pressure in Brazilian production areas continues to be released, freight rates have declined with crude oil, and the ONF premium of Brazilian soybeans has recently decreased. Trump's claim of a visit to China in mid - August boosted the performance of US soybeans. Attention should be paid to the results of the US soybean planting intention area report at the end of August and the 2026 Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) expected to be released by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The shipping in Brazil has resumed, alleviating concerns about delayed domestic arrivals. The supply of oil mills has recovered, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction for domestic soybean meal in April. After the previous stocking, the downstream buying interest is currently weak, and the basis has weakened slightly. Looking ahead, the arrival of soybeans in May is sufficient, the delivery pressure is reflected in the futures market, and the selling pressure in South America still needs to be further released. The valuation of soybean meal futures is low. It is recommended to wait for a callback to arrange long positions in the far - month contracts. The driving factors for the later rise should be focused on cost increase, weather speculation, and adjustments to the balance sheet of new US soybeans. In April, the domestic soybean meal inventory will be reduced, and the M5 - M9 spread may change with the basis, but the overall trend is expected to maintain a reverse spread [13] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - 43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis: In Dalian, it was 388; in Tianjin, it was 328 with a decrease of 20; in Rizhao, it was 328 with a decrease of 20; in Zhangjiagang, it was 328 with a decrease of 20; in Dongguan, it was 348 with a decrease of 20; in Zhanjiang, it was 298 with a decrease of 20; in Fangcheng, it was 308 with a decrease of 20 [4] - Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis: In Guangdong, it was 60 with a decrease of 5. The N5 - 9 was - 78 with a decrease of 3, and the RM5 - 9 was - 78 with a decrease of 10 [4] 3.2 Spread Data - Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread: The spot spread in Guangdong was 818 with a decrease of 10, and the futures spread of the main contract was 608 [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - National Major Oil Mills' Soybean Inventory: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2018 - 2026 [6][7] - China's Port Soybean Inventory: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2018 - 2026 [6][7] - National Major Oil Mills' Soybean Meal Inventory: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2020 - 2026 [8] - Feed Enterprises' Soybean Meal Inventory Days: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2020 - 2026 [8] 3.4开机和压榨情况 (Operation and Pressing Situation) - National Major Oil Mills' Soybean Pressing Volume: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2020 - 2026 [10][12] - National Major Oil Mills' Operating Rate: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2020 - 2026 [11][12] - Downstream Goods Receipt Volume: Data presented in a time - series graph from 2019 - 2026 [12]