瑞达期货农业气象周报-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the agricultural meteorological conditions for various crops, including soybeans, rapeseed, palm oil, corn, cotton, apples, dates, sugarcane, beets, peanuts, wheat, and rice. It also includes ENSO forecasts and their potential impacts on crop growth and production [6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Meteorological Concerns - ENSO forecast: The probability of La Nina is 96% from February to April, 90% from March to May, and 65% from April to June [6] - Domestic: Spring wheat sowing has started in the eastern part of Northwest China. Single-season rice, spring corn, and potatoes are in the sowing and emergence stage in Southwest China. Early rice in South China is in the emergence to three-leaf stage, and in the Yangtze River Basin, it is in the sowing and emergence stage. There is a high risk of waterlogging in some farmlands in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou, which is unfavorable for rapeseed flowering, pollination, and fruiting, and affects the sowing and seedling raising of early rice and spring corn. Continuous rainy weather will aggravate the occurrence and development of rapeseed sclerotinia and wheat stripe rust [7] - International: US soybeans have not started sowing. Brazilian soybeans are in the harvesting stage, and Argentine soybeans are in the growing stage. As of March 21, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate is 67.7%, compared with 59.2% last week, 76.4% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 66.4%. In the next 15 days, in the central-western soybean-producing areas of Brazil, the southern part will have less rainfall than normal, and the northern part will have more rainfall than normal; the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is favorable for crop harvesting. In the next 15 days, most areas of the Argentine soybean-producing areas will have more rainfall than normal and higher temperatures, which is unfavorable for soil moisture. European rapeseed is in the growing stage. In the next 15 days, most areas of the key producing areas in France and Germany in Europe will have less rainfall than normal and normal temperatures. There is rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia, but it is less than normal, reducing the impact on palm fruit picking [7] 2. Meteorological Conditions in Each Crop Producing Area Soybeans - Domestic: Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia) accounts for over 60% of the total soybean output, and the Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 15% of the total output. Both regions have not started sowing yet [11][16] - US: The soybean-producing areas are concentrated in the central part, including Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Nebraska, and Indiana. New-season soybeans usually start to be planted in mid-April. The USDA's supply and demand report shows that the US soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 115.75 million tons, lower than 119.05 million tons in the previous season. In the next 6 - 10 days, the temperature in the US soybean-producing areas will be higher than normal, and the precipitation will be higher than normal. The drought degree has increased by 1 percentage point compared with the previous week. As of September 23, about 37% (+1) of the soybean-producing areas are in a drought state. Compared with the previous week, the area of severe drought and above (D2+) has increased by 3%, and the D3+ area remains unchanged. Overall, the drought situation has worsened. Compared with the same period last year, the D1+ area has increased by 7%, the D2+ area has increased by 5%, and the D3+ area is the same, which is worse than last year [25][26][35] - Brazil: The soybean-producing areas are concentrated in the central-western part, including Mato Grosso (28%), Paraná (13%), Rio Grande do Sul (11%), Goiás (11%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (9%). As of March 21, the soybean harvest rate is 67.7%. The USDA report estimates that the Brazilian soybean output in the 2025/26 season is 180 million tons. In the next 15 days, in the central-western soybean-producing areas of Brazil, the southern part will have less rainfall than normal, and the northern part will have more rainfall than normal; the temperature will be normal or higher than normal, which is favorable for crop harvesting [39][40][47] - Argentina: The soybean-producing areas are concentrated in the central part, including Buenos Aires (31%), Córdoba (28%), Santa Fe (19%), and Santiago del Estero (9%), accounting for about 12% of the world's output. The soybeans are in the growing stage. The USDA expects the output in the 2025/26 season to be 48.5 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.11%. In the next 15 days, most areas of the soybean-producing areas will have more rainfall than normal and higher temperatures, which is unfavorable for soil moisture [51][52][58] Rapeseed - Domestic: Spring rapeseed is planted in the Northwest and North China, accounting for about 10% of the total output, and the harvest is over. Winter rapeseed is planted in the Yangtze River Basin and Southwest China, accounting for about 50% and over 35% of the total output respectively, and both are in the full-bloom stage. In the Yangtze River Basin, there is more rainfall, and there is a high risk of waterlogging in some farmlands in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou, which is unfavorable for rapeseed flowering, pollination, and fruiting. The temperature conditions in all producing areas are suitable [62][68][73] - Canada: The rapeseed output ranks first in the world, accounting for about 22%. It is concentrated in the Prairie Provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) and is usually sown in May. Statistics Canada estimates that the rapeseed sowing area in 2025 is 21.6 million acres, a 1.7% decrease from 22 million acres in 2024. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed-producing areas in the three provinces will have less rainfall than normal and higher temperatures, which is unfavorable for soil moisture [78][83] - EU: The rapeseed output ranks second in the world, accounting for about 20%. The rapeseed is mainly planted in France (21%), Germany (21%), Poland (18%), Romania (6%), etc. It is in the growing stage. The consulting agency Strategic Grains estimates that the rapeseed output of the 27 EU countries in the 2025/26 season is 19 million tons, an increase of 2.2 million tons compared with 16.8 million tons in the 2024/25 season. In the next 15 days, most areas of the key producing areas in France and Germany will have less rainfall than normal and normal temperatures [87][88][94] Palm Oil - Indonesia: The main palm oil-producing areas are Sumatra and Kalimantan. There is rainfall, but it is less than normal, and the impact on palm fruit picking is small [98][107] - Malaysia: The palm oil-producing areas are concentrated in Sarawak, Sabah, Pahang, Johor, and Perak. Sabah and Sarawak together account for over 45% of the output. There is rainfall, but it is less than normal, and the impact on palm fruit picking is small [101][107] Corn - Northeast China (including Inner Mongolia) produces over 40% of the total output, and the spring corn harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) produces over 30% of the total output. Spring corn is about to be sown, and the summer corn harvest is over. In Southwest China, the corn output accounts for about 10% of the total output, and spring corn is in the sowing and emergence stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [118][119][123] Cotton - Xinjiang accounts for about 90% of the total output and is generally sown from April to May. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for about 6% of the total output and is also generally sown from April to May. The harvest is over, and the precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [133][134][138] Apples - The Bohai Bay region (Shandong, Liaoning, Hebei, Beijing, and Tianjin) accounts for about 33% of the total output, and the apples are in the budding stage. The Loess Plateau region in the Northwest (Weibei in Shaanxi, southern and central Shanxi, Sanmenxia in Henan, and eastern Gansu) accounts for about 60% of the total output, and the apples are also in the budding stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [147][148][153] Dates - Xinjiang accounts for about 50% of the total output and is generally sown in late April. The Loess Plateau region (Shanxi and Shaanxi) accounts for over 20% of the total output and is also generally sown in late April. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 20% of the total output, and the jujube harvest is over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [162][163][168] Sugarcane - Guangxi, Yunnan, and Guangdong account for 68.6%, 14.8%, and 12.6% of the total output respectively, and are in the sowing stage. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [176][181][185] Beets - Xinjiang accounts for about 39% of the total output, and most are spring-sown, with the harvest over. The North China region accounts for about 57% of the total output, and most are also spring-sown, with the harvest over. The precipitation and temperature conditions are suitable [190][195][199] Peanuts - Northeast China accounts for about 10% of the total output, and the harvest is over. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 60% of the total output, and both spring and summer peanuts have been harvested. The South China region accounts for over 10% of the total output, and spring peanuts are in the germination and emergence stage, while autumn peanuts have been harvested. In the South China region, there is more rainfall in some areas, and there is a high risk of waterlogging in low-lying farmlands [204][205][211] Wheat - The Northwest region accounts for over 10% of the total output, mainly planting spring wheat, which is in the greening to standing stage. The Huanghuaihai region (Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui) accounts for over 80% of the total output, mainly planting winter wheat, which is in the standing to jointing stage. There is more rainfall, which will aggravate the occurrence and development of wheat stripe rust and other diseases. The temperature conditions are suitable [220][225][229] Rice - Northeast China produces about 20% of the total output, and the single-season rice harvest is over. The Yangtze River Basin produces over 40% of the total output, with single and double-season rice coexisting. Early rice is in the sowing and emergence stage, single-season rice is in the sowing stage, and late rice has been harvested. Southwest China produces about 14% of the total output, mainly single-season double-cropping rice, with indica and japonica rice coexisting, and single-season rice is in the sowing and emergence stage. South China produces about 12.5% of the total output, mainly double-season indica rice, with multiple crops a year. Early rice is in the emergence to three-leaf stage, and late rice has been harvested. There is a high risk of waterlogging in some farmlands in Jiangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou, which affects the sowing and seedling raising of early rice and other crops. The temperature conditions are suitable [234][239][241]