Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-03-27 10:46Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on the platinum and palladium markets, analyzing the current market situation, supply - demand dynamics, and providing investment suggestions [6] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The strengthening of the US dollar and crude oil prices has continuously suppressed the precious metals market. The platinum and palladium markets on the GQIEX continued their weak and volatile performance this week [6] - The main contradictions in the market revolve around the repeated situation in the US - Iran conflict, the impact of oil prices and inflation expectations, and the pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [6] - Platinum shows stronger price support than palladium, with its support coming from its tight fundamentals. The medium - term tight logic of platinum remains unchanged, while the medium - term logic of palladium is weaker [6] - In the short term, platinum and palladium are likely to follow the fluctuations of gold and silver, remaining under pressure. Short - term funds are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors can gradually buy platinum on dips [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Week - to - Week Summary - The US dollar and crude oil prices have put pressure on the precious metals market. The platinum and palladium markets on the GQIEX continued to be weak and volatile. The main contradictions in the market are related to the US - Iran situation, oil prices, inflation expectations, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [6] - Platinum's price support comes from its tight fundamentals. In 2026, the global platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 240,000 ounces, and the above - ground inventory may drop to 2.613 million ounces [6] - Although palladium is supported by Russian supply risks, its medium - term logic is weaker. The Chinese fiberglass industry may be a new source of palladium demand, but currently, palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline - vehicle catalysts [6] 4.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Due to the repeated US - Iran geopolitical situation, the US dollar and crude oil prices fluctuated at high levels. The main contracts of platinum and palladium on the GQIEX were weak and volatile [7] - As of March 27, 2026, the main palladium contract 2606 on the GQIEX was at 358.20 yuan/gram, down 2.89% for the week; the main platinum contract 2606 was at 493.05 yuan/gram, down 3.28% for the week [11] - The net positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. The long - position of NYMEX palladium continued to flow out [12] - As of March 17, 2026, the net long - position of NYMEX platinum was 22,917 contracts, a 9.57% increase; the net long - position of NYMEX palladium was - 1,383 contracts, a 1.71% increase but still in a net - outflow state [14] - This week, the basis of the main NYMEX platinum contract strengthened, while that of the main NYMEX palladium contract weakened [15] - As of March 26, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was $55.7/ounce (last week: - $38), strengthening; the NYMEX palladium basis was - $33/ounce (last week: $47), weakening [19] - This week, the basis of the main platinum contract on the GQIEX weakened, while that of the main palladium contract strengthened [20] - As of March 26, 2026, the platinum basis was - 2.85 yuan/gram (last week: 3.35 yuan/gram), weakening; the palladium basis was - 14.35 yuan/gram (last week: - 18.45 yuan/gram), strengthening [22] - This week, the NYMEX platinum inventory decreased slightly, while the NYMEX palladium inventory increased [23] - As of March 26, 2026, the NYMEX platinum inventory was 558,767.51 ounces, a 3.54% decrease; the NYMEX palladium inventory was 248,373.69 ounces, a 1.29% increase [26] - The price trends of platinum and gold continued to be highly synchronized, and the gold - platinum ratio weakened slightly this week [27] - As of March 26, 2026, the gold - platinum ratio was 2.41 (last week: 2.44), a slight weakening; the rolling correlation between NYMEX platinum and gold strengthened (N = 40) [31] 4.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of February 2026, the import and export volume of platinum decreased, while that of palladium increased [33] - Platinum imports were 4,437,146 grams, a 6.11% decrease; exports were 371,067 grams, a 72.15% decrease. Palladium imports were 1,525,418 grams, a 51.77% increase; exports were 2,288 grams, a 25.94% increase [37] - The demand for platinum and palladium in automobile exhaust catalysts has been declining due to the increasing share of new - energy vehicles [39] - The core consumption of platinum and palladium is concentrated in automobile exhaust catalysts, but the trends are different. The proportion of automobile catalysts in global palladium consumption is 83%, and the annual industrial consumption decreased by 6% to 285 tons. For platinum, automobile catalysts account for 44%, and the annual industrial consumption decreased by 3% to 234 tons [41] - The total demand for global platinum and palladium is showing a gentle slowdown trend [42] - WPIC expects the global platinum demand to be 8.297 million ounces in 2025, a 1% increase, and to drop to 7.619 million ounces in 2026. The automobile demand will decline from 3.107 million ounces in 2024 to 2.943 million ounces in 2026 [46] - The supply patterns of platinum and palladium are different. Geopolitical situations have tightened the platinum supply [48] - In 2025, the global platinum mine supply decreased to 5.551 million ounces, a 4% decrease, and is expected to rise slightly to 5.553 million ounces in 2026. The recycling supply increased from 1.664 million ounces to 1.827 million ounces. The global palladium mine production is expected to drop to 190,000 kilograms in 2025, a significant decline from 217,000 kilograms in 2024 [52] 4.4 Macro and Options - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields continued their strong performance [58] - As of March 26, 2026, the US dollar index was 99.90, a 0.70% increase; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 2.02%, a 0.16% increase [62] 4.5 Platinum - Palladium Price Difference - This week, the price differences between domestic and foreign markets for both platinum and palladium narrowed [54] - As of March 26, 2026, the platinum price difference between domestic and foreign markets was $86.61/ounce, a week - on - week decrease; the palladium price difference was $45.76/ounce, a week - on - week decrease [56]