集运指数（欧线）期货周报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rates of the container shipping index (European Line) futures varied this week. The main contract EC2604 closed down 8.7%, and the far - month contracts had a decline ranging from 7% to 4%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1693.26, up 136.77 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% [6][36]. - Geopolitical expectations have improved, causing the prices of near - month container shipping index (European Line) futures to decline. The spot price is affected by the high oil price. The opening price of Maersk's large container in week w14 at the beginning of the month was $2600, and the high - cube container was $2700, a $400 increase compared to the end of March. CMA issued a written price increase notice, with the large container price about $3500, slightly higher than the previously announced price of $3100 in late March [6][36]. - The eurozone's unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 6.1% in January, reaching a record low. Inflation accelerated unexpectedly, with the CPI in February rising 1.9% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged as expected, but concerns about imported inflation led to an increase in the expectation of a tightening ECB policy. The market fully priced in the ECB's resumption of interest rate hikes in July [6][36]. - The geopolitical situation is uncertain, but the detour expectation is gradually being realized. The fundamental pattern of the shipping industry has not changed, and the upward space in April is limited. The adjustment of freight rates by shipping companies has also decreased compared to before. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track shipping company quotes, cargo volume data, and the development of the US - Iran conflict and the subsequent transfer of power in Iran [7][37]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - The prices of the container shipping index (European Line) futures varied this week. The main contract EC2604 closed down 8.7%, and the far - month contracts had different changes. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1693.26, up 136.77 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% [6][10][36]. - The price of the main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) futures retreated after a small improvement in the geopolitical situation. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2604 contract declined this week [12][14]. 3.2 News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | US President Trump postponed the strike on Iranian energy facilities by 10 days until 8 pm on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. He also denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran and said that the US military operations against Iran were continuing. Iran responded to the US 15 - point cease - fire proposal, putting forward several conditions | Bearish | | The OECD predicted that the global economic growth rate would be 2.9% in 2026 and rise slightly to 3% in 2027. The US economic growth rate would slow from 2% in 2026 to 1.7% in 2027, and the inflation rate this year would reach 4.2%, much higher than the Fed's expectation | Neutral | | Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi. Both sides hoped to promote the cooling of the situation and start the peace - negotiation process | Neutral | | Goldman Sachs said that the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months had risen to 30% due to the soaring oil and gas prices. Fed Governor Milan thought it was too early to judge the impact of oil prices on the US economy and advocated further interest rate cuts | Slightly Bullish | 3.3 Weekly Market Data - The basis of the container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts shrank, and the spread widened this week [23]. - The global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the European Line capacity fluctuated and rebounded. The BDI and BPI dropped rapidly this week, and the freight rates fluctuated slightly [28]. - The charter price of Capesize ships dropped significantly this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar widened rapidly [31]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The freight rates of the container shipping index (European Line) futures varied this week. Geopolitical expectations have improved, causing the prices of near - month futures to decline, and the spot price is affected by the high oil price. The eurozone's inflation accelerated unexpectedly, and the market fully priced in the ECB's resumption of interest rate hikes in July [36]. - The geopolitical situation is uncertain, but the detour expectation is gradually being realized. The fundamental pattern of the shipping industry has not changed, and the upward space in April is limited. The adjustment of freight rates by shipping companies has also decreased compared to before. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track shipping company quotes, cargo volume data, and the development of the US - Iran conflict and the subsequent transfer of power in Iran [7][37].