合成橡胶市场周报-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market soared significantly, with the spot price ranging from 15,600 to 18,000 yuan/ton. The continuous impact of the military conflict in the Middle East has led to a reduction in the supply of crude oil and downstream energy - chemical products, causing the production cost of cis - butadiene rubber to rise continuously. As of March 26, 2026, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 18,500 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 18,500 - 18,600 yuan/ton [7]. - In the near future, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a continuous impact on crude oil and shipping. The supply of crude oil and butadiene in the region is tight. Under the influence of soaring raw material prices and potential supply shortages, the production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened significantly, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down. The rotational inspection of the Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene plant has further reduced the supply. This week, the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises has decreased significantly. Considering that the price of butadiene has not substantially declined and some plants will enter the regular maintenance state, it is expected that the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decline [7]. - On the demand side, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly this week. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are striving to meet quarterly tasks, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some enterprises have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [7]. - Due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical conflict between the US and Iran, the short - term synthetic rubber futures price is expected to fluctuate sharply. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being and pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Market Review: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market soared this week, with the spot price in the range of 15,600 - 18,000 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 18,500 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's sales companies was between 18,500 - 18,600 yuan/ton as of March 26, 2026 [7]. - Market Outlook: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to affect crude oil and shipping. The supply of crude oil and butadiene is tight. Production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened, and some plants have reduced production or shut down. The inventory of production enterprises has decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has slight fluctuations, with some short - term maintenance arrangements [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran conflict, it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to geopolitical changes [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - Price Movement: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed higher this week, with a weekly increase of 11.6% [11]. - Position Analysis: Not detailed in the report. - Inter - month Spread: As of March 27, the 5 - 6 spread of butadiene rubber was 165 [19]. - Futures Warehouse Receipts: As of March 26, the cis - butadiene rubber warehouse receipts were 24,300 tons, an increase of 1,340 tons from last week [22]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - Spot Price and Basis: As of March 26, the price of Qilu Petrochemical's BR9000 in the Shandong market was 17,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,300 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was - 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 310 yuan/ton from last week [26]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - Naphtha and Ethylene Prices: As of March 26, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 1,101.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 59 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 1,400 US dollars/ton, an increase of 50 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory: As of March 27, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from last week [33]. 3.3.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber Production - Production and Capacity Utilization: In February 2026, the production of cis - butadiene rubber was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 6.36% and a year - on - year increase of 25.64%. As of March 26, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39% from last week [36]. - Production Profit: As of March 26, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton from last week [39]. - Inventory: As of March 27, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 41,510 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from last week; the manufacturer's inventory was 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons from last week; the trader's inventory was 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons from last week [44]. 3.3.3 Downstream - Tire Capacity Utilization: As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly [47]. - Tire Exports: In February 2026, China's tire exports were 631,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.49% and a year - on - year increase of 22.34%. From January to February, the cumulative tire exports were 1,336,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 11.57%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 257,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.82% and a year - on - year increase of 17.79%; from January to February, the cumulative exports of passenger car tires were 543,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.42%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 344,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.52% and a year - on - year increase of 23.97%; from January to February, the cumulative exports of truck and bus tires were 730,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.07% [50]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Not provided