同程旅行(0780) 2025Q4业绩点评：盈利能力稳定，继续稳健增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][11]. Core Insights - The adjusted net profit for 2026 is revised down to 4.038 billion RMB, while the 2027 adjusted net profit is raised to 4.938 billion RMB. A new profit forecast for 2028 is introduced at 5.730 billion RMB. The target market capitalization is set at 48.4 billion RMB, translating to a target price of 23.34 HKD per share [11][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 17,341 million RMB in 2024 to 26,634 million RMB in 2028, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.86% [4]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 2,785 million RMB in 2024 to 5,730 million RMB in 2028, with a peak growth rate of 26.66% in 2025 [4]. - The adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to rise from 4,050 million RMB in 2024 to 8,208 million RMB in 2028, with an adjusted EBITDA margin projected to stabilize around 15.24% by 2028 [4][12]. Performance Overview - In Q4 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.84 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 14.22%. The accommodation business grew by 15.44%, while the transportation segment saw a 6.53% increase. Other revenues surged by 52.98% [11]. - The adjusted net profit for Q4 2025 was reported at 780 million RMB, marking an 18.12% year-on-year increase, while the adjusted EBITDA reached 1.283 billion RMB, up 28.59% year-on-year [11]. Market Position - The company is positioned within the social services industry, specifically in the online travel agency (OTA) sector, which continues to show stable growth despite challenges in the travel agency segment [6][11].