小米集团-W：新一代SU7拓圈获客，AI取得战略性进展——小米集团25Q4业绩点评-20260327

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810.HK) [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that the pessimistic expectations regarding storage price increases have been largely digested, suggesting a focus on Xiaomi's substantial progress in AI research and development, including models, embodied intelligence, self-developed chips, and operating systems [3][13] - The revenue forecast for FY2026E-FY2028E has been adjusted to RMB 514.1 billion, RMB 584.5 billion, and RMB 661.4 billion respectively, while the adjusted net profit forecast has been revised to RMB 33 billion, RMB 41 billion, and RMB 52.5 billion respectively [13] - The target price for Xiaomi Group has been adjusted to HKD 43.4 based on the SOTP valuation method [13][17] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 365.9 billion in 2024, RMB 457.3 billion in 2025, RMB 514.1 billion in 2026, RMB 584.5 billion in 2027, and RMB 661.4 billion in 2028, with growth rates of 35.0%, 25.0%, 12.4%, 13.7%, and 13.2% respectively [5] - Gross profit is expected to be RMB 76.6 billion in 2024, RMB 101.8 billion in 2025, RMB 105.8 billion in 2026, RMB 121.3 billion in 2027, and RMB 139.7 billion in 2028, with gross margins of 20.9%, 22.3%, 20.6%, 20.7%, and 21.1% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit is forecasted to be RMB 27.2 billion in 2024, RMB 39.2 billion in 2025, RMB 33.0 billion in 2026, RMB 41.0 billion in 2027, and RMB 52.5 billion in 2028, with growth rates of 41.3%, 43.8%, -15.8%, 24.4%, and 28.0% respectively [5] Market Performance - The stock price range over the past 52 weeks has been between HKD 31.58 and HKD 60.15, with a current market capitalization of HKD 841.25 million [8]