新强联：TRB出货放量支撑业绩高景气-20260327

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 62.00 [5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 4.63 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 57.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 820 million, up 1151.4% year-on-year, driven by increased shipments and a higher proportion of high-value TRB main bearings [1][2]. - The company is expected to see continued growth in the wind power sector, with revenue from wind power products projected to reach RMB 3.58 billion in 2025, a 72.7% increase year-on-year, and a gross margin of 30%, up 13 percentage points [2]. - The company is actively expanding into the gearbox bearing market, achieving initial revenue of RMB 10 million in 2025, indicating a successful entry into a segment with lower domestic production levels and higher technical barriers [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit is projected to be RMB 1.28 billion and RMB 1.50 billion for 2026 and 2027, respectively, with an additional forecast for 2028 of RMB 1.63 billion, corresponding to EPS of RMB 3.10, RMB 3.62, and RMB 3.94 for the respective years [4]. - The report maintains the earnings forecast and assigns a P/E ratio of 20x for 2026, reflecting the company's competitive advantages in TRB bearings and the domestic substitution of gearbox bearings, leading to potential alpha in earnings growth [4].