海峡封锁时长或远超预期

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz may be a key factor in determining the outcome of the war, and the threat to its passage could impact the global energy supply, financial markets, trade systems, and geopolitical landscape [4]. - The negotiation conditions of the US and Iran are at odds, and the US military is likely to conduct an amphibious landing operation in the Strait of Hormuz, which may lead to a long - term interruption of crude oil transportation [60]. - The global economy has passed its peak in Q4 2025 and is on a downward trend. The continuation of the conflict may cause oil prices to soar, and the US economy is at a high risk of stagflation [27]. - As the strait blockade may last longer than expected, the shortage of crude oil will lead to a substantial reduction in refinery loads, and chemical products are expected to start an independent market [60]. 3. Summary by Related Content Geopolitical Situation - The control of the Strait of Hormuz is crucial. If Iran retains control or the ability to threaten blockade, the US will be considered to have lost the war; if the US ensures freedom of navigation, it will strengthen its global leadership [4]. - The US has proposed a 15 - point armistice plan to Iran, including requirements for Iran to limit its nuclear program, stop supporting regional allies, and ensure the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In return, Iran may get sanctions lifted and support for civilian nuclear projects [5]. - Iran has put forward 5 conditions for an armistice, including an end to hostilities, establishment of a war - prevention mechanism, compensation for war losses, full end of the conflict, and recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - Iran insists on its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and separates the right of passage from the armistice negotiation. It is also preparing to levy tolls on passing ships [9]. Financial Market - The US president's attempt to suppress Brent crude oil prices through social media is losing effectiveness, and oil prices may get out of control [13]. - The US 2 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond yields are rising, indicating a serious shortage of liquidity and heavy selling pressure on bonds [16][20]. - Gold prices have fallen unexpectedly as institutions sell gold to obtain liquidity, spreading the liquidity risk [22]. - The US stock market is a major risk source. The distribution of stocks by institutions is coming to an end, and the deterioration of the Middle East situation will accelerate this process [24]. Economic Situation in the US - The US government's quarterly interest payments have reached a new high, and the 2 - month core CPI and PPI are rising, indicating accelerating inflation [28][31][33]. - The manufacturing and service PMI price indices are expanding, and the US is sliding towards stagflation [36]. - The number of initial jobless claims is 213,000, and the unemployment rate in February is 4.4%. The non - agricultural employment decreased by 92,000 in February, showing a rapid decline in employment [39][42]. - Retail and food sales in January decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a weakening of US consumption [44]. - The import value of capital goods in January reached a record high of $110.7 billion, indicating an acceleration of the US re - industrialization process [47]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI index unexpectedly expanded, and the service PMI in February expanded more than expected [50]. Global Economic Situation - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI slightly expanded in February, probably driven by the military industry [53]. - India's manufacturing and service PMI remain at a certain level of prosperity [55]. - Japan's 10 - year Treasury bond yield is rising, indicating increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [57]. Commodity Market - As the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may last longer, the supply of crude oil will be severely affected. Although a large amount of strategic oil reserves are released, the daily supply is far from meeting the demand [60]. - The price fluctuations of chemical products go through three stages. In late March, refineries will enter a substantial load - reduction phase, and chemical products are expected to start an independent market [61][62][65]. - The reduction of refinery loads will lead to a decrease in the production of ethylene, propylene, etc., which is beneficial to the prices of related downstream products such as styrene, linear low - density polyethylene, and polypropylene [72][84][87]. - The expected decline in China's port inventory of methanol and the interruption of ethylene - glycol imports due to refinery load - reduction are also expected to affect the prices of these products [75][78]. - The substantial damage to Qatar's natural gas production capacity has created room for the rise of liquefied petroleum gas [90].