4月债市调查问卷点评：4月债市怎么看？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - Standing at the end of March and looking forward to April, the market's mainstream expectation for the bond market is to continue in a "narrow - range oscillation". The operation strategy has shifted to waiting for opportunities, and the allocation structure emphasizes both short - term bottom positions and long - term gaming. These expectations indicate that the market is rationally looking at the current position and actively preparing for potential corrections and opportunities in the future [1]. - Based on the results of the bond market survey released at the end of March, investors have five mainstream expectations for the bond market in April: the consensus on the interest rate operating range is strengthened, and narrow - range oscillation remains the benchmark scenario; the expectation of monetary policy easing is postponed, with reserve requirement ratio cuts preceding interest rate cuts; the position - holding strategy has shifted, and investors are holding cash and waiting for corrections; the market focus has shifted, with monetary policy and external risks becoming the core drivers; the allocation structure is differentiated, with a focus on stability at the core and marginal gaming [2]. - Looking forward to April, investors' judgments on the operating ranges of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields have further converged compared to March. The market's expectation of monetary policy easing rhythm has shown obvious differentiation. The market's view on the bond market has shifted from "strong short - end, weak long - end" to "overall strengthening (bull flattening)". The main logic of bond market pricing has changed from "fiscal supply - led" to "dual - driven by monetary policy and external risks". The capital allocation logic is returning to a more balanced state, and the attractiveness of the bond market is increasing [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 4 - month Bond Market Outlook - A bond market survey was conducted from March 24 to March 26, 2026, and 99 valid questionnaires were received, covering various institutional and individual investors [9]. - The survey results show that investors have a clear consensus on the operating ranges of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields in April. For the 10 - year Treasury bond, the lower limit is concentrated in the 1.75% - 1.80% range, and the upper limit is concentrated in the 1.85% - 1.90% range. For the 30 - year Treasury bond, the lower limit is concentrated in the 2.20% - 2.25% range, and the upper limit is mainly in the 2.30% - 2.35% range [12][15]. - Regarding monetary policy, the market expects a reserve requirement ratio cut in the second quarter and an interest rate cut in the third quarter or later, indicating a cautious view on the economic recovery process and inflation pressure [18]. - In the case of the equity market's callback due to geopolitical factors in March, if it continues in April, most investors believe that the direct impact on the bond market is limited, and the bond market pricing will return to domestic fundamentals and policies [21]. - Investors' preference for large - scale asset allocation in April shows the characteristics of "equities leading, bonds warming up, and commodities cooling down". The attractiveness of domestic bonds has significantly increased, and the popularity of the commodity sector has declined [23]. - The market's expectation for the bond market in April has shifted from "strong short - end, weak long - end" to "overall strengthening (bull flattening)". The most mainstream operating strategy is to "hold cash and wait for a correction to the expected point before adding positions" [27][28]. - The main logic of bond market pricing in April has shifted from "fiscal supply - led" to "dual - driven by monetary policy and external risks". The focus of market attention has returned to the central bank's liquidity injection rhythm, and the concern about external factors such as geopolitics has increased significantly [33]. - In terms of bond variety preferences, investors show a characteristic of "concentrating on short - duration bonds and considering coupon income". The positioning of medium - and short - term interest - rate bonds as bottom - position assets is further consolidated, and the willingness to allocate long - term interest - rate bonds has increased [37].