2026区域经济盘点系列之一：2026化债重点或包括经营性债务

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, all provincial - level regions had positive GDP growth, with 18 provinces outperforming the national average. Most provinces saw an increase in general public budget revenue and an improvement in fiscal self - sufficiency. However, most provinces also had a significant increase in local government debt balances and an upward trend in government debt ratios. Only five provinces managed to reduce their urban investment interest - bearing debts [1][11]. - In 2026, both the central and local governments emphasize "taking multiple measures to resolve the operational debt risks of local government financing platforms". The central government has entered a new stage of "unified management" for debt resolution, and local governments have achieved positive results in resolving implicit debts and reducing the number of financing platforms in 2025, and have set clear goals for 2026 [3][32]. - Given the ongoing debt - resolution cycle and the attention paid to resolving operational debt risks, the default risk of urban investment bonds remains low. There are still some provinces' urban investment bonds with certain cost - effectiveness, but currently, the overall yield of urban investment bonds is low, and trading is needed to increase returns [4][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Ten Strong Provinces Contribute Over 60% of GDP, Only Five Provinces Achieve a Reduction in Urban Investment Interest - Bearing Debts - Economic Aspect: The top ten provinces' GDP totaled 85.5 trillion yuan, accounting for 61% of the national economic aggregate. All provincial - level regions had positive GDP growth, with 18 provinces having a higher GDP growth rate than the national average of 5.0%. Tibet ranked first in GDP growth for three consecutive years. Chongqing's GDP exceeded Liaoning's in 2025 [11][12]. - Fiscal Aspect: Most provinces' general public budget revenues increased, and the revenue growth of major economic provinces rebounded. The growth rate of general public budget expenditures slowed down significantly, and the fiscal self - sufficiency rate of most provinces increased. The tax revenue ratio of half of the provinces increased [11][17][21]. - Debt Aspect: With the continuous implementation of the debt - resolution policy supported by "6 + 4" trillion yuan of local government bonds, the local government debt balances of most provinces increased significantly. All provincial - level regions' government debt ratios increased. Most provinces' urban investment interest - bearing debts (mainly operational debts) still increased to varying degrees, and only five provinces achieved a reduction [11][28][29]. 3.2 How Does the Central Government and Each Province View Debt Resolution in 2026? - Central Government: The central government emphasizes "taking multiple measures to resolve the operational debt risks of local government financing platforms", enters a new stage of "unified management" for debt resolution, continues to regard "resolving existing debts, curbing new debts, and promoting the transformation of financing platforms" as important tasks, and emphasizes the real transformation of financing platforms [3][32][36]. - Local Governments: In 2025, local governments achieved positive results in resolving implicit debts and reducing the number of financing platforms. In 2026, many provinces follow the central government's instructions and mention taking multiple measures to resolve operational debt risks. Some provinces also set goals for resolving implicit debts, debt management, and financing platform exit [3][40][41]. 3.3 Which Provinces' Urban Investment Bonds Still Have Cost - Effectiveness? - Short - term urban investment bonds (within 1 year) can be downgraded to an implied rating of AA -. Provinces such as Guizhou, Shanxi, Zhejiang, Gansu, Shaanxi, Guangxi, Shandong, and Yunnan have an average yield of over 2.1% and can be focused on. - For 1 - 3 - year urban investment bonds, they can be downgraded to implied ratings of AA and AA(2). Provinces such as Guangdong, Hubei, Anhui, Hunan, Jiangxi, Henan, Sichuan, and Chongqing have an average yield of over 2% and a large bond scale. - For urban investment bonds over 3 years, it is recommended to focus on AAA and AA + implied ratings in developed regions. Currently, the overall yield of urban investment bonds is low, and trading is needed to increase returns. If it is predicted that the yield will decline, high - elasticity entities can be preferentially invested in to earn more excess returns [4][42][45]. 3.4 Appendix: Debt - Resolution - Related Content in Government Work Reports and Fiscal Budget Execution Reports - 2025 Work Summary: Each province has achieved certain results in resolving implicit debts, reducing the number of financing platforms, and clearing arrears to enterprises [52]. - 2026 Work Outlook: Each province has set clear goals for debt resolution in 2026, including resolving implicit debts, managing debts, and promoting the transformation and exit of financing platforms [54][55][60].