【冠通期货研究报告】沥青日报：高开后震荡下行-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate strongly, with large price fluctuations. The current supply - side pressure has not been substantially alleviated, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Middle East situation [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years. In April, the planned asphalt production in China is only 1.527 million tons, a decrease of 440,000 tons (22.4%) month - on - month and 764,000 tons (33.3%) year - on - year [1] - After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. The road asphalt operating rate increased by 4 percentage points to 14% week - on - week, returning to the level at the end of January [1][4] - This week, the national asphalt shipment volume increased by 14.66% week - on - week to 126,000 tons, still at a low level. The asphalt plant inventory rate decreased slightly week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [1] - The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the basis is still at a low level. China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. The attacks by the US and Israel on Iran will affect the Middle East raw material supply, and the market is worried about the shortage of raw materials for domestic refineries [1] - Next week, Qilu Petrochemical will switch to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate is expected to decrease slightly. The non - navigation of the Strait of Hormuz increases the expectation of refinery production cuts. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand gradually recovers slowly, and the supply - demand situation of asphalt improves [1] Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures 2606 contract rose 1.05% to 4,532 yuan/ton today, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 4,433 yuan/ton, the highest price was 4,647 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 4,443 to 280,023 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong is maintained at 4,330 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 06 contract rose to - 202 yuan/ton, at a low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 2.5 percentage points to 21.8% week - on - week, 8.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at the lowest level in recent years [4] - From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.6%, an improvement from - 6.0% from January to December 2025, but still in a year - on - year negative growth situation. From January to February 2026, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 11.4%, a significant increase from - 2.2% from January to December 2025 [4] - As of the week of March 27, after the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed work. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased, and the road asphalt operating rate increased by 4 percentage points to 14% week - on - week, returning to the level at the end of January [4] - As of the week of March 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 17.1% week - on - week compared with the week of March 20, and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]