【冠通期货研究报告】PVC日报：高开后震荡下行-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market has complex factors. The supply side shows an increase in the PVC start - up rate, and there are new production capacities. The demand side is affected by the slow improvement of the real estate market. The social inventory is high, and the market is volatile. It is recommended to wait and see for now due to the uncertain situation in the Middle East and the downstream order situation [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC start - up rate increased by 0.80 percentage points to 80.90%, being at a neutral - to - high level in recent years. After the Spring Festival, the average downstream start - up rate of PVC rose 4.30 percentage points to 45.96%, 1.21 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Some overseas device loads decreased, and export prices rose significantly. The social inventory increased slightly again and is still high. The real estate is in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The futures warehouse receipts are higher than the same period. There are expectations of anti - involution and supply reduction in the PVC market [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 5536 yuan/ton, the highest was 5757 yuan/ton, and it closed at 5615 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.43%. The position decreased by 4554 lots to 720148 lots [2]. - On March 27, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region dropped to 5425 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 5615 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 190 yuan/ton, strengthening by 25 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, Yantai Wanhua ended maintenance, Guangxi Huayi resumed full production, and the start - up loads of Shaanxi Jintai and Henan Lianchuang increased. The PVC start - up rate increased by 0.80 percentage points to 80.90%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of 2025, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) had a trial production in December 2025 [4]. - On the demand side, the real estate is in the adjustment stage. From January to February 2026, the national real estate development investment was 961.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. The sales area of commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 818.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.2%. The new construction area of houses was 50.84 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.1%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises' houses was 5.35372 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7%. The completed area of houses was 63.2 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%. As of the week of March 22, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 13.10% week - on - week, but it was still at a low level compared with the same period in previous years [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of the week of March 26, the PVC social inventory increased by 0.20% week - on - week to 1.374 million tons, 70.63% higher than the same period last year [6].