尿素日报：保供稳价下，振幅略窄-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea market opened higher and closed higher today, with the market transaction price rising after the increase in futures trading yesterday [1]. - High daily production and national reserve supplies ensure domestic urea supply, contrasting with the shortage of overseas resources [1]. - The start - up data of compound fertilizer factories continued to rise this period, but the increase has shrunk significantly. Agricultural demand is basically weakening, and the downstream support mainly relies on nitrogen - containing compound fertilizers in spring and summer, supplemented by the demand from panel factories and melamine [1]. - The inventory continued to decline this period, with a 13.4% decrease compared to last week, and is expected to continue to decline next week [1]. - The market price fluctuation has narrowed. The main tone of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices limits the rise and fall of urea, and the price fluctuations of other commodities have also weakened. The urea market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range at a high level [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - The urea market opened higher and closed higher today, and the market transaction price increased after the rise in futures trading yesterday. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in major domestic producing areas such as Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are concentrated at 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton [1][3]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1. Futures - The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1872 yuan/ton, closed higher, and finally closed at 1877 yuan/ton, with a gain of 0.43%. The trading volume was 191703 lots, a decrease of 4937 lots. Among the top 20 main positions of the main contract, the long position decreased by 945 lots, and the short position decreased by 1075 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of +447 lots, China Merchants Futures had a net long position of +418 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of +1546 lots, and Galaxy Futures had a net short position of -1967 lots [2]. - On March 26, 2026, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8707, a decrease of 317 compared to the previous trading day. Among them, Meishan Xindu (Yuntu Holdings UR) decreased by 250, and Zhongnong Yuncang decreased by 67 [2]. 3.2.2. Spot - After the increase in futures trading yesterday, the market transaction price increased. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in major domestic producing areas such as Hebei, Shandong, and Henan are concentrated at 1810 - 1840 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3. Fundamental Tracking 3.3.1. Basis - Today, the mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the May contract was -17 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton [7]. 3.3.2. Supply Data - According to Feiyitong data, on March 27, 2026, the national daily urea production was 218,000 tons, an increase of 22,000 tons compared to yesterday, and the start - up rate was 86.91% [8].