原油日报：高开后震荡下行-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The EIA data shows that the accumulation of US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. The market focuses on the Middle East situation. Although some measures have alleviated short - term supply pressure, they are still less than the previous crude oil shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation, and the risk of large - scale fluctuations in crude oil remains. The situation in the Middle East is still tense, and the risk of crude oil price surges persists. It is recommended to participate with caution [1] - The possibility of a US - Iran negotiation is low, and thousands of US Marines are about to arrive in the Middle East, with the potential for island - seizure or ground operations [1] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory accumulation exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. Iran's daily crude oil production is about 3.3 million barrels, accounting for 3% of global production, and its daily exports are about 1.6 million barrels. The Strait of Hormuz has been nearly suspended for many days, causing Middle East oil - producing countries to cut production. The IEA announced the release of 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves, but the delivery speed is slow. The US has taken measures to relax sanctions on oil from Russia, Venezuela, and may lift sanctions on Iranian crude oil on tankers, which alleviates short - term supply pressure but is still insufficient [1] - Trump postponed the plan to strike Iran's energy infrastructure for 10 days to 8:00 pm on April 6, Eastern Time. Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu said military operations against Iran will "continue in full force", and Iranian senior officials said there are no arrangements for negotiations [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The main crude oil futures contract 2605 rose 1.70% to 740.8 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 726.6 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 756.8 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 600 to 52,438 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA's latest short - term energy outlook expects the Brent crude oil price to be $78.84 per barrel in 2026 (previously $57.69 per barrel) and $64.47 per barrel in 2027 (previously $53 per barrel). Affected by the Middle East conflict, it is expected to remain above $95 per barrel in the next two months and fall to $80 per barrel in the third quarter [3] - The EIA expects global oil production in 2026 to be 107 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast of 107.8 million barrels per day; global oil demand in 2026 is expected to be 105.2 million barrels per day, higher than the previous forecast of 104.8 million barrels per day [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report maintains its global supply, demand, and economic forecasts. It expects global oil demand to increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 to 106.53 million barrels per day and by 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027 to 107.87 million barrels per day [3] - The IEA significantly reduced the global crude oil supply growth forecast from 2.4 million barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day and the crude oil demand growth forecast from 850,000 barrels per day to 640,000 barrels per day. It is expected that global oil supply will plummet by 8 million barrels per day in March [3] Inventory and Production Data - As of the week ending March 20, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.926 million barrels (expected to increase by 477,000 barrels), 4.40% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories decreased by 2.593 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.143 million barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 3.032 million barrels (expected to decrease by 1.292 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 3.421 million barrels [4] - OPEC's average crude oil production in February was 28.63 million barrels per day, an increase of 164,000 barrels per day compared to January, mainly due to increased production in Venezuela and Iraq [4] - US crude oil production in the week of March 20 decreased by 11,000 barrels per day to 13.657 million barrels per day, near the historical high [4] - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.678 million barrels per day, a 0.38% increase compared to the same period last year, with a reduced over - average compared to last year. Gasoline weekly production increased by 2.25% to 8.924 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.796 million barrels per day, a 0.41% decrease compared to the same period last year; diesel weekly production decreased by 18.89% to 3.568 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 3.933 million barrels per day, a 1.66% decrease compared to the same period last year. The decrease in diesel and other oil products led to a 7.56% decrease in the weekly supply of US crude oil products [4][6]