沪铜日报：基本面宏观共振-20260327

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened higher and closed lower but ended the day with gains. The shortage of copper ore resources due to tight overseas resources and shipping difficulties caused by war supports copper prices. The substitution of recycled copper has declined. The production of electrolytic copper increased in March. The demand in the copper product sector has started to pick up during the peak season, but the terminal data is not optimistic. The inventory has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern has improved marginally. The market is expected to fluctuate due to news - related stimuli [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - Shanghai copper opened higher and closed lower, ending the day with gains. In February 2026, China imported 2.31 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a 6.0% year - on - year increase and a 12.0% month - on - month decrease. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years. The mainstream refined - scrap copper price difference has decreased. The electrolytic copper production in March increased by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. The copper product sector's demand has started to pick up during the "Golden March and Silver April" period. The copper cable industry's开工 rate in February was 55.81%, a 14.29 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month and a 9.06 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The new energy vehicle production and sales decreased by 21.8% and 14.2% respectively year - on - year. The inventory decreased by 5.15% compared to last week. The market is expected to fluctuate due to news - related stimuli [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and closed lower, ending the day with gains. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 85 yuan/ton, and in South China was 105 yuan/ton. On March 26, 2026, the LME official price was $12,189/ton, and the spot premium was - $81/ton [4]. 3. Supply - side - As of March 24, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - $69.22/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 7 cents/pound [8]. 4. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 237,100 tons, a decrease of 9,365 tons from the previous period. As of March 23, the Shanghai bonded area copper inventory was 74,400 tons, a decrease of 360 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 360,300 tons, an increase of 425 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 589,700 short tons, an increase of 1,035 short tons from the previous period [11].