中国人民保险集团（01339）：2025年业绩点评：银保驱动价值增长，财险承保盈利高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China People's Insurance Group with a target price adjusted to HKD 8.20 per share, corresponding to a 2026 P/B of 1.0 times [7][11]. Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is projected to be RMB 46.65 billion, reflecting an 8.8% year-on-year increase. The net asset value is expected to rise by 15% compared to the beginning of the year, with an annual dividend of RMB 0.22 per share, up 22.2% year-on-year [3][11]. - The report highlights significant improvements in the combined ratio (COR) for property and casualty insurance, driven by effective cost control, and strong growth in new business value (NBV) for life insurance, primarily fueled by the bancassurance channel [3][11]. Financial Summary - Insurance Service Revenue: Expected to grow from RMB 537.71 billion in 2025 to RMB 664.93 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of approximately 5.1% [5]. - Net Profit: Projected to increase from RMB 46.65 billion in 2025 to RMB 66.36 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of approximately 11.2% [5]. - P/E Ratio: Expected to decrease from 5.31 in 2024 to 3.43 in 2028, indicating a potential undervaluation [5]. - P/B Ratio: Expected to decline from 0.85 in 2024 to 0.67 in 2028, suggesting a favorable valuation trend [5]. Key Performance Drivers - Property and Casualty Insurance: Premium income is expected to grow by 3.3% year-on-year in 2025, with motor insurance premiums increasing by 2.8% and non-motor premiums by 3.9% [11]. - Combined Ratio (COR): The COR for property and casualty insurance is expected to improve by 1.3 percentage points to 97.5% in 2025, driven by a reduction in the expense ratio and an increase in the claims ratio [11]. - Life Insurance NBV: Anticipated to grow by 64.5% year-on-year in 2025, with bancassurance channel NBV increasing by 99.6% [11]. Financial Forecasts - Earnings Per Share (EPS): Expected to rise from RMB 1.05 in 2025 to RMB 1.50 in 2028 [5][11]. - Book Value Per Share (BPS): Projected to increase from RMB 6.99 in 2025 to RMB 7.65 in 2028 [5][11]. - Embedded Value Per Share (EVPS): Expected to grow from RMB 3.61 in 2025 to RMB 5.39 in 2028 [5][11].