特步国际：26年为关键投入年，未来多元发展可期-20260327

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2]. Core Insights - The main brand has maintained steady performance in 2025, with Saucony experiencing continuous high growth. The company is positioned for a year of increased investment in 2026, focusing on channel optimization and product upgrades, which is expected to lead to sustained high-quality development for the main brand and a rapid growth phase for Saucony [3][4]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 13,577 million in 2024, with a slight decline of 5.4%, followed by a recovery to RMB 14,151 million in 2025 (+4.2%) and further growth to RMB 14,838 million in 2026 (+4.9%). By 2028, revenue is expected to reach RMB 17,625 million (+9.1%) [5]. - Gross profit is forecasted to be RMB 5,865 million in 2024, increasing to RMB 6,063 million in 2025 (+3.4%) and RMB 6,410 million in 2026 (+5.7%). The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 43% in the coming years [5]. - Net profit is expected to be RMB 1,238 million in 2024, increasing to RMB 1,372 million in 2025 (+10.8%) but declining to RMB 1,260 million in 2026 (-8.1%). By 2028, net profit is projected to reach RMB 1,605 million (+14.3%) [5]. - The company’s PE ratio is expected to decrease from 10.7 in 2024 to 7.7 by 2028, indicating a potentially undervalued stock as earnings grow [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report anticipates that the company will achieve a net profit of RMB 12.6 billion in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 10X, 9X, and 8X for the following years. Given the company's strong market position and the growth potential of Saucony, a target price of HKD 7.5 is set, based on a PE of 15X for 2026 [8].