格林大华期货早盘提示：铜-20260327

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "volatile and bullish" rating for the copper sector in the non - ferrous metals industry [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The current copper market is mainly affected by inflation expectations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Copper prices have shifted from being driven by Middle - East events to being driven by inflation expectations. It is expected that copper prices this week will follow the gold trend to a greater extent and decouple from the negative correlation with crude oil prices. With the easing of market panic after the news of US - Iran peace talks, copper prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize, and investors can consider gradually building long positions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - The night - session closing price of the main Shanghai copper contract (CU2605) was 95,150 yuan/ton, a 1.1% decline from the previous night - session closing price. The second - main Shanghai copper contract (CU2606) closed at 95,100 yuan/ton at night, with a decline of 1.17%. As of 06:00 on March 27, 2026, the closing price of the COMEX copper main contract (HGK26E) was 5.4705 US dollars/pound (converted to 83,265 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9), a 0.9% decline from the previous trading day. The LME copper main contract (CA03ME) closed at 12,120 US dollars/ton (converted to 83,678 yuan/ton at an exchange rate of 6.9041), with a decline of 1.33% [1] 3.2 Important Information - On March 23, according to local media reports, Freeport - McMoRan in Indonesia will restart production at its Grasberg mine in the next two to three weeks, and Blocks 2 and 3 of the mine will start production [1] - According to the statistical monthly report data on the official website of the General Administration of Customs on March 23, in January - February 2026, the cumulative export of unwrought copper and copper products was 34.36 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 95.5% [1] - According to the statistical monthly report data on the official website of the General Administration of Customs on March 23, in January - February 2026, the cumulative import of copper ore concentrates was 4.93 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [1] - According to the official website of the Shanghai Stock Exchange on March 23, Zijin Mining's (601899.SH) wholly - owned subsidiary, Zijin Gold, will hold 572 million shares of Chifeng Gold after the transaction with Chifeng Gold is completed, accounting for about 25.85% of the total number of shares after the additional issuance. The company will gain control of Chifeng Gold [1] - According to Wenhua Finance on March 19, KoBold Metals' Mingomba high - grade copper project in Zambia has officially moved from the exploration stage to the development stage, with an average copper grade of 3.64% - 5%. The project is expected to have a total investment of 2.3 - 2.5 billion US dollars, aiming to produce copper in the early 2030s, with an annual copper output of about 300,000 tons after completion [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The current copper market is mainly affected by inflation expectations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The high price of crude oil has gradually spread to the middle and lower reaches in 20 days, and inflation has gradually become a fact and continuously strengthened future expectations. Since crude oil has accumulated a gain of about 65% after the war, the contribution of single - day price changes to the cumulative gain is getting smaller, and the impact of single - day crude oil fluctuations on inflation is less than in the early stage of the war. Copper prices have shifted from being driven by Middle - East events to being driven by inflation expectations. Inflation expectations are directly reflected in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. It is recommended to pay more attention to the CME FedWatch Tool and the price and term structure of the 30 - day US federal funds futures [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability that the interest rate will remain unchanged in December this year is 54.4%, the probability of one interest - rate hike is 35.7%, the probability of two interest - rate hikes is 8.8%, and the probability of one interest - rate cut is 0%, which deviates from the institutional prediction of one interest - rate cut. After the news of US - Iran peace talks, the market panic has eased, so copper prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize, and investors can consider gradually building long positions [1]