全球经济观察2026年第6期：美国经济预期悲观

Global Asset Performance - Global stock markets remain under pressure, with major U.S. indices collectively declining this week[3] - 10-year U.S., German, and Japanese bond yields increased by 5, 12, and 12 basis points respectively[3] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices fell by 1.1% and 6.2% respectively due to easing geopolitical tensions[3] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.7%, while other non-U.S. currencies weakened against the dollar[3] Major Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction will be a long-term process, influenced by bank reserve demand[4] - The European Central Bank (ECB) aims to unconditionally maintain a 2% inflation target and is prepared to adjust policies as needed[4] - The Bank of Japan indicates a gradual interest rate hike if economic indicators remain favorable[4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. Composite PMI fell to 51.4, the lowest in nearly a year, indicating signs of economic cooling[5] - The U.S. Economic Sentiment Index dropped sharply to -28.7, a decline of 23.6 percentage points from February, marking the largest monthly drop since the pandemic[5] - Service sector contraction is a major drag on economic performance, while manufacturing shows slight stabilization[5] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone PMI unexpectedly dropped to 50.5, below the expected 51, with service sector PMI falling to 50.1[6] - Japan's core CPI rose by 1.6% year-on-year, below the expected 1.7%, indicating lower inflation pressures[6] Upcoming Focus - Key upcoming data includes China's manufacturing PMI on March 31, Eurozone CPI, and U.S. non-farm payroll data on April 3[7] Risk Alerts - Potential risks include tighter-than-expected monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, greater-than-expected U.S. economic downturn, and escalating geopolitical conflicts[8]