格林大华期货贵金属期货一季报

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and investors should pay attention to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [77] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Disk Review - Gold Trend: On January 29, 2026, Shanghai gold hit a high of 1258.72 yuan/gram. After the US President announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for the Fed Chairman, the market tumbled. It rebounded in February overall. After the US - Israel - Iran conflict on February 28, it rose on March 2 but then fell continuously, and closed around 1000 on March 27 [7] - Silver Trend: On January 30, 2026, Shanghai silver hit a high of 32382 yuan/kg and then fell sharply. It rebounded after February 6. After the US - Israel - Iran conflict on February 28, it rose on March 2, then fell continuously, and closed around 17500 on March 27 [10] 3.2. Current Analysis - Inventory Analysis - Gold Inventory: Since February this year, the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory has been stable at around 105 tons. COMEX gold inventory decreased from 36.26 million ounces (1128 tons) at the end of 2025 to 31.71 million ounces on March 27 [16] - Silver Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory decreased from 692 tons at the end of 2025 to 253 tons on March 9 and then rebounded to 372 tons on March 27. COMEX silver inventory decreased from about 450 million ounces (about 14000 tons) at the end of 2025 to 328 million ounces on March 27. The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory decreased from 774 tons at the end of 2025 to 276 tons on March 13 and was 301 tons on March 20 [20][25] - ETF Holdings - Gold ETF: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, reached a high of 1101.33 tons at the end of February and then declined to 1052.705 tons on March 27. The continuous out - flow in recent weeks has put pressure on prices [28] - Silver ETF: The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, declined continuously in March, hitting a low of 15185.94 on March 19, a decrease of 8.2% from the high of 16546.59 on February 2, and then rebounded slightly [30] - Gold - Silver Ratio: The London spot gold - silver ratio hit a low of 45 on January 29, then rebounded, fluctuated around 60 in February, and was 66 on March 27 [34] - US Economic Data - GDP: The initial value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 1.4%, far lower than the expected 3.0%, with the government shutdown dragging down GDP by about 1 percentage point [36] - Unemployment Rate: The US unemployment rate was 4.4% in February, 4.3% in January, 4.4% in December last year, 4.5% in November, and 4.4% in September and August [39] - Non - farm Payrolls: In February, the US non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, while the forecast was an increase of 55,000 [42] - CPI: In February, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.5% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [45] - PCE: In January, the US core PCE increased by 0.4% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year, in line with expectations [48] - PPI: In February, the US PPI increased by 3.4% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3.0%. The core PPI increased by 3.9% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3.7% [51] - PMI: In February, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the market expectation of 51.5. The US ISM services index rose to 56.1, the highest since mid - 2022 [54] - Interest Rate and Market Indicators - Fed Interest Rate: The Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged in March. According to CME "FedWatch" on March 26, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate hike in April is 6.2%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 93.8% [56] - US Treasury Yield: After the US - Israel - Iran conflict on February 28, the US Treasury yield rebounded due to concerns about inflation [60] - US Dollar Exchange Rate: After the US - Israel - Iran conflict on February 28, the US dollar index rose due to risk - aversion sentiment [64] - Implied Volatility: The implied volatility of Shanghai gold and silver options is high. It is recommended to wait and see for now [68][72] 3.3. Strategy Suggestion - In January this year, gold accelerated its rise and silver skyrocketed. After the nomination of Kevin Warsh, the precious metals market tumbled. After the US - Israel - Iran conflict, gold only rose slightly and then fell. The ongoing war has pushed up inflation expectations, and the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut has turned to a possible rate hike. The strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of US Treasury yields have suppressed precious metals. Short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and investors should pay attention to the Iranian situation and control positions [77]