GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-28 07:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for the company with a target price of 11.91 CNY per share [6][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2025 aligns with the pre-announcement, driven by rapid growth in investment and brokerage businesses. As a large brokerage firm with a strong wealth management label, it is expected to benefit from the trend of residents moving their deposits [2][12]. - The company achieved a net profit of 5.634 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 68%. Adjusted revenue (operating income minus other business costs) was 15.35 billion CNY, up 26% year-on-year [12][13]. - The company is projected to see net profits of 6.583 billion CNY, 7.371 billion CNY, and 8.091 billion CNY for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 12%, and 10% [12][13]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Operating revenue for 2025 is forecasted at 15.358 billion CNY, down 20% from 2024, with a recovery expected in subsequent years [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 5.634 billion CNY in 2025 to 8.091 billion CNY by 2028 [4][12]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is expected to increase from 0.66 CNY in 2025 to 0.95 CNY in 2028 [4][12]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - ROE is projected to rise from 6.8% in 2025 to 8.3% in 2028 [4][12]. - Market Capitalization and Valuation: - The company's market capitalization is approximately 77.404 billion CNY, with a current price of 9.11 CNY per share [7][12]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 13.74 in 2025 to 9.57 in 2028 [4][12]. Business Segments - Revenue Breakdown: - In 2025, revenue from investment, brokerage, investment banking, and asset management was 6.99 billion CNY, 2.92 billion CNY, 1.50 billion CNY, and 1.36 billion CNY respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 16%, 29%, and 1% [12][13]. - Asset Management: - The asset management segment contributed 9.3 billion CNY in profit, accounting for 16.5% of total profits, with a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [12][13]. - Investment Strategy: - The company is focusing on expanding its equity investments and maintaining a stable leverage ratio, with an operating leverage of 4.11x at the end of the period [12][13].