GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-03-28 10:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company with a target price of 11.91 CNY per share [6][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance in 2025 aligns with the pre-announcement, driven by investment and brokerage businesses, leading to rapid profit growth. As a large brokerage firm with a strong wealth management label, the company is expected to benefit from the trend of residents moving their deposits [2][12]. - The company achieved a net profit of 5.634 billion CNY in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 68%. Adjusted revenue (operating income minus other business costs) was 15.358 billion CNY, up 26% year-on-year [12]. - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.583 billion CNY, 7.371 billion CNY, and 8.091 billion CNY for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 12%, and 10% [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - Operating revenue for 2024 is projected at 19.19 billion CNY, with a decrease to 15.358 billion CNY in 2025, followed by a recovery to 17.261 billion CNY in 2026 [4][13]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 3.35 billion CNY in 2024 to 5.634 billion CNY in 2025, and further to 6.583 billion CNY in 2026 [4][13]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.39 CNY in 2024 to 0.66 CNY in 2025, and reach 0.77 CNY in 2026 [4][13]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - The ROE is expected to improve from 4.1% in 2024 to 6.8% in 2025, and further to 7.5% in 2026 [4][13]. Business Segments - Revenue Breakdown: - In 2025, the company generated revenue from investment (6.99 billion CNY), brokerage (2.92 billion CNY), investment banking (1.5 billion CNY), and asset management (1.36 billion CNY), with year-on-year growth rates of 40%, 16%, 29%, and 1% respectively [12]. - Asset Management: - The asset management segment contributed 9.3 billion CNY in profit in 2025, with a profit share of 16.5%. The company’s public fund subsidiary is expected to see improved profitability as the public fund industry undergoes reforms [12].