PVC周报：电石法产量弥补乙烯法，库存去化缓慢-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The comprehensive profit of enterprises has rebounded to a high level, and short - term production is at a historical high. However, there are expectations of passive production cuts in ethylene - based production and seasonal maintenance, so the March start - up rate is expected to decline gradually [11]. - Domestic demand is gradually recovering from the off - season, but overall domestic demand is under pressure. Although the time for canceling export tax rebates is approaching, there are expectations of production cuts overseas due to raw material shortages, and domestic production may be needed to fill the gap [11]. - The cost of calcium carbide and caustic soda has rebounded. In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, the price trend is mainly upward, but as the short - term increase is large, risks should be noted [11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost and Profit: The price of Wuhai calcium carbide is reported at 2,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan; the price of Shandong calcium carbide is reported at 3,165 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan; the price of medium - grade semi - coke in Shaanxi is 720 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 85 yuan. The comprehensive integrated profit of chlor - alkali is oscillating at a high level, the profit of ethylene - based production is low, and the current valuation is neutral [11]. - Supply: The PVC capacity utilization rate is 80.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. Among them, the calcium carbide method is 85.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%; the ethylene method is 70.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. Some enterprises may start spring maintenance in March, and with the continuation of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, there is an expectation of a further decline in ethylene - based production load, and the overall load is expected to decline [11]. - Demand: In terms of exports, the export tax - rebate policy is planned to be cancelled on April 1st, and the short - term effect of rush - exporting has declined. However, due to the shortage of raw materials in Asia, the reduction of the load in Northeast Asia may bring export growth opportunities. The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries are gradually recovering from the Spring Festival holiday. The load of pipes is 41.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2%; the load of films is 59.3%, a month - on - month increase of 7.9%; the load of profiles is 37.4%, a month - on - month increase of 3%. The overall downstream load is 46%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3%. Last week, the pre - sales volume of PVC was 77.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6 tons [11]. - Inventory: Last week, the in - factory inventory was 33.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7 tons; the social inventory was 137.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 tons; the overall inventory was 171.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4 tons; the number of warehouse receipts decreased seasonally. Currently, the ethylene - based production load is stable. Although the calcium carbide method has increased production due to improved profits, it is currently in the maintenance season, and ethylene - based production is expected to further reduce production. It is expected that the overall load in March will decline, and overseas exports are expected to be supported by the shortage of ethylene raw materials in Northeast Asia, and inventory is expected to be reduced in March [11]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - Multiple charts are provided, including PVC term structure, PVC East China SG - 5 price, PVC spot basis, PVC 5 - 9 spread, PVC active contract positions and trading volume, and PVC total positions and trading volume, showing the price and trading volume trends from 2022 to 2026 [15][18][21][25][27] 3.3. Profit and Inventory - Inventory: The in - factory inventory continues to decline, the social inventory is stable, the overall inventory is slowly decreasing, and the number of warehouse receipts is decreasing [32][40]. - Profit: Multiple charts show the profit trends of Shandong's externally purchased calcium carbide chlor - alkali integration, PVC calcium carbide method, PVC ethylene method, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide from 2022 to 2026 [43] 3.4. Cost Side - The price of calcium carbide continues to rebound. Charts show the price trends of Wuhai calcium carbide, Shandong calcium carbide, semi - coke in Shaanxi, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, and Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price from 2022 to 2026, as well as the inventory and start - up rate of calcium carbide [49][53][56] 3.5. Supply Side - The historical trend of PVC capacity shows the growth rate situation. In 2025, a total of 250 tons of PVC production capacity was put into operation, including multiple enterprises using calcium carbide and ethylene methods. Charts also show the start - up rates of PVC calcium carbide method, ethylene method, overall start - up rate, and weekly output from 2022 to 2026 [60][64][67] 3.6. Demand Side - The start - up rates of the three major downstream industries of PVC are continuously recovering. Charts show the start - up rates of PVC downstream industries, profiles, films, pipes, export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, Chinese housing completion area rolling cumulative year - on - year, and also include the PVC industry chain and mind map [71][73][76][77][78][80][84][87][90]