生猪周报：近端仍弱，波动加大-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot pig price in China continued to decline last week. The demand side showed significant off - season characteristics, and the supply side had a high enthusiasm for slaughter. The pre - accumulated pig sources were continuously released. With oversupply, the spot price dropped without resistance. The slaughter volume increased continuously during the week, and the weight was larger year - on - year and increased month - on - month. The fat - to - standard price difference slightly strengthened. It is expected that the pig price will remain weak but the decline will slow down [11][22]. - The reduction of sows since last year has been limited, resulting in a large theoretical supply in the first half of this year. Although the fundamentals will improve in the second half of the year, the improvement space is limited. The sow reduction progress has slowed down, but currently, both hog fattening and piglet prices are in the red, indicating that capacity reduction will probably accelerate. The progress of capacity reduction needs to be continuously monitored through weight, piglet price, and culled sow price [11][34]. - The downstream slaughter enterprises have limited enthusiasm for warehousing, and there is no obvious sign of increased demand. The slaughter volume may remain relatively stable, and its impact on the market is relatively limited [11][59]. - The slaughter scale is large and the weight is still increasing. The improvement space of the supply - side fundamentals is limited. Under the pessimistic expectation, there is no bottom - supporting force such as active frozen - product warehousing and concentrated second - fattening entry to break the negative cycle. The short - term spot price will remain weak. The premiums of all contracts on the futures market are still high, but the gaming pressure under high positions has also increased, and the near - term volatility has increased. The overall strategy is to consider short - selling on rebounds, and there is no value in going long on the far - end contracts. When the overall position is too large, attention should be paid to cashing in profits in time [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Spot Market: The domestic pig price continued to decline last week. The demand was in the off - season, and the supply side had high slaughter enthusiasm. The pre - accumulated pig sources were released, leading to an oversupply situation. The slaughter volume increased, and the weight was larger year - on - year and increased month - on - month. The fat - to - standard price difference slightly strengthened. The supply is still sufficient, but it may decrease briefly after the breeding end completes its plan at the end of the month. The demand sentiment is poor, and the bottom - supporting effect of second - fattening and frozen products is low. It is expected that the pig price will remain weak but the decline will slow down [11][22]. - Supply Side: The reduction of sows since last year has been limited, resulting in a large theoretical supply in the first half of this year. The sow reduction progress has slowed down, but capacity reduction will probably accelerate. The theoretical slaughter volume will remain high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although it will decline seasonally, the decline is small and the volume is still high year - on - year. The short - term supply is still in obvious excess [11][34]. - Demand Side: The downstream slaughter enterprises have limited enthusiasm for warehousing, and there is no obvious sign of increased demand. The slaughter volume may remain relatively stable, and its impact on the market is relatively limited [11][59]. - Trading Strategy: Hold short positions in the 05 and 07 contracts and gradually reduce positions at low prices. The profit - to - loss ratio is 2:1, and the recommended cycle is 2 months. The core driving logic includes inventory, weight, second - fattening, fat - to - standard price difference, and slaughter volume. The recommendation level is two - star, and it was first proposed on February 26th [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price Trend: The domestic pig price continued to decline last week. The demand was in the off - season, and the supply side had high slaughter enthusiasm. The pre - accumulated pig sources were released, leading to an oversupply situation. The slaughter volume increased, and the weight was larger year - on - year and increased month - on - month. The fat - to - standard price difference slightly strengthened. The supply is still sufficient, but it may decrease briefly after the breeding end completes its plan at the end of the month. The demand sentiment is poor, and the bottom - supporting effect of second - fattening and frozen products is low. It is expected that the pig price will remain weak but the decline will slow down [11][22]. - Basis and Spread Trend: After the Spring Festival, the spot price opened sharply lower, and the recent pressure is still high. The futures market has turned into a premium structure, and the basis has turned negative. The weak spot price has led to a reverse spread in the monthly spread [25]. 3.3. Supply Side - Reproductive Sows and Changes: The reduction of sows since last year has been limited, resulting in a large theoretical supply in the first half of this year. The sow reduction progress has slowed down, but capacity reduction will probably accelerate. The progress of capacity reduction needs to be continuously monitored through weight, piglet price, and culled sow price [34]. - Inventory and Slaughter: The theoretical slaughter volume will remain high in the first half of the year, peaking in March. After April, although it will decline seasonally, the decline is small and the volume is still high year - on - year [43]. - Sow Culling and Sales: No significant information was summarized from the content. - Slaughter Size and Proportion: The proportion of small pigs in slaughter is generally not high, indicating that the current epidemic situation is generally controllable. The proportion of large pigs has decreased seasonally and is lower year - on - year, indicating that the current inventory of large pigs is not high [46]. - Trading and Post - Slaughter Average Weight: The short - term supply is still in obvious excess. Before the Spring Festival, enterprises did not reduce the weight enough, and the inventory accumulated during the Spring Festival. After the festival, the slaughter scale was not low, the price dropped, and the breeding was in the red. In this situation, the weight still increased month - on - month [50]. - Import and Pig Feed Month - on - Month: No significant information was summarized from the content. - Second - Fattening and Pen Utilization: No significant information was summarized from the content. 3.4. Demand Side - Slaughter Volume: The downstream slaughter enterprises have limited enthusiasm for warehousing, and there is no obvious sign of increased demand. The slaughter volume may remain relatively stable, and its impact on the market is relatively limited [59]. - Slaughter Capacity Utilization and Gross Margin: No significant information was summarized from the content. - Spread and Price - Volume Relationship: No significant information was summarized from the content. - Fresh - Frozen Spread and Fresh Sales Rate: No significant information was summarized from the content. 3.5. Cost and Profit - Cost and Breeding Profit: The breeding cost has been running at a low level. Recently, the piglet price has dropped significantly, and the purchase cost has also decreased. After the Spring Festival, the pig price has dropped sharply, and the breeding has turned into a loss state, which is slightly lower from a seasonal perspective [70]. 3.6. Inventory Side - Cost and Breeding Profit: The frozen - product inventory has increased slightly seasonally, and it is in a state of passive inventory accumulation month - on - month [75].