Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The copper price may show a fluctuating downward trend. The reference range for the main contract of Shanghai copper this week is 92,000 - 97,500 yuan/ton, and the reference range for LME copper 3M is 11,600 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [14]. - The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and the short - term inventory is expected to continue to decline, which will support the copper price [14]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Supply: The spot processing fee of copper concentrates has declined to the lowest level in history, and the processing fee of blister copper has continued to decline. The supply of cold materials has tightened marginally. Chile's National Copper Corporation produced 1.33 million tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%, and the expected output in 2026 is 1.33 - 1.36 million tons. Luoyang Molybdenum produced 741,000 tons of copper in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 14.0%, and the output guidance for 2026 is 760,000 - 820,000 tons [11]. - Demand: The copper price has rebounded in a fluctuating manner, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream buyers has weakened, the trading volume has declined but still remains at a relatively high level, and the operating rate of copper processing enterprises has increased in a fluctuating manner. The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased again [12]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.254 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased by 52,000 tons to 359,000 tons, the LME inventory has increased by 18,000 tons to 360,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory has increased by 1,000 tons to 535,000 tons. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area has decreased by 15,000 tons. In the spot market, on Friday, the spot price of copper in East China was at a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the futures price; the Cash/3M discount in the LME market has narrowed to 70.9 US dollars/ton [13]. - Import and Export: The spot import profit of domestic electrolytic copper has declined, and the Yangshan copper premium has increased. From January to February, China's refined copper imports were 251,000 tons and 204,000 tons respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 454,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; the net import volumes in January and February were 157,000 tons and 125,000 tons respectively, with a cumulative net import volume of 283,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4% [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: The copper price has rebounded. The main contract of Shanghai copper has risen by 1.26% this week (as of Friday's close), and LME copper has risen by 2.59% to 12,141 US dollars/ton [25]. - Spot Price: The report provides the spot prices of electrolytic copper, copper products, and recycled copper at different times from February 13, 2026, to March 27, 2026, and the price differences between them [27]. - Premium and Discount: The domestic copper price has rebounded, and the basis has weakened. On Friday, the copper spot in East China was at a discount of 95 yuan/ton to the futures price; the LME inventory has increased, the proportion of cancelled warrants has increased, and the Cash/3M discount has narrowed, reporting a discount of 70.9 US dollars/ton on Friday. The spot import profit of domestic electrolytic copper has declined, and the Yangshan copper premium has increased [30]. 3. Profit and Inventory - Smelting Profit: The spot rough smelting fee TC of imported copper concentrates has reached a new low, reporting - 68.9 US dollars/ton. The price of sulfuric acid in East China has strengthened, which still makes a positive contribution to copper smelting revenue [38]. - Import - Export Ratio: The offshore RMB has depreciated slightly, and the spot Shanghai - London ratio of copper has risen and then fallen [41]. - Import - Export Profit and Loss: The spot import profit of copper has risen and then fallen [44]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the three major exchanges is 1.254 million tons, a decrease of 33,000 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area is 63,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared with the previous week. The decrease in the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange mainly comes from Shanghai, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Zhejiang; the number of copper warrants has decreased by 37,039 to 237,076 tons. The LME inventory has increased, and the increase comes from warehouses in Asia, North America, and Europe; the proportion of cancelled warrants has increased [47][50][53]. 4. Supply Side - Electrolytic Copper Monthly Output: According to SMM research data, China's refined copper output in February 2026 decreased by about 37,000 tons month - on - month, and it is expected that the output in March will rebound significantly and be at a relatively high level in history. According to national statistics data, the refined copper output in December 2025 was 1.326 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.1%; the annual cumulative output was 14.72 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% [58]. - Import and Export Situation: From January to February 2026, China's copper ore imports were 2.624 million tons and 2.31 million tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% and 5.9% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 4.934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. The imports of unwrought copper and copper products in January and February were 384,000 tons and 316,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4% and 24.8% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 700,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The imports of anode copper in January and February were 65,000 tons and 57,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 3.1% and 3.8% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 750,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The imports of refined copper in January and February were 251,000 tons and 204,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6% and 33.3% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 454,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.6%; the net import volumes in January and February were 157,000 tons and 125,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year decrease of 43.8% and 55.0% respectively, with a cumulative net import volume of 283,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. The exports of refined copper in January and February were 93,000 tons and 78,000 tons respectively. The imports of recycled copper in January and February were 232,000 tons and 168,000 tons respectively, a year - on - year increase of 22.8% and a decrease of 13.1% respectively, with a cumulative import volume of 400,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [61][64][67][73][76]. 5. Demand Side - Consumption Structure: Globally, the consumption of electrolytic copper is mainly in the power (46%), household appliances (15%), transportation (11%), construction (9%), mechanical electronics (9%), and other (10%) sectors. In China, the consumption is mainly in the construction (26%), equipment (23%), industry (12%), transportation (13%), infrastructure (17%), and other (9%) sectors [80]. - PMI: In February, China's official manufacturing PMI declined month - on - month, while the RatingDog comprehensive PMI increased significantly, showing a differentiation in manufacturing prosperity. The manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies is also differentiated, with the prosperity of Japan, the Eurozone, and India improving, and that of the United States and the United Kingdom weakening [83]. - Downstream Industry Output Data: Among the copper downstream industries, the cumulative output from January to February 2026 increased year - on - year in cold storage, power generation equipment, refrigerators, color TVs, and air conditioners, while it decreased in automobiles, AC motors, and washing machines [86]. - Real Estate Data: From January to February 2026, the domestic real estate data was weak, with new construction, construction, sales, and completion all declining year - on - year, and completion and new construction showing relatively weak performance. The National Real Estate Climate Index declined in December 2025 [89]. - Downstream Enterprise Operating Rate: In February, the operating rate of China's refined copper rod enterprises weakened seasonally and is expected to rebound significantly in March; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained at a low level and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of enameled wire enterprises weakened in February and is expected to recover in March, approaching the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper tube enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound seasonally in March but be lower than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of brass rod enterprises declined in February and is expected to rebound in March. The operating rate of copper strip enterprises weakened in February and is expected to rebound in March, higher than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of copper foil enterprises declined slightly in February and is expected to increase in March, with the operating situation significantly better than that of the same period last year. The weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises continued to increase, significantly higher than the level of the same period last year; the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises decreased and remained at a relatively low level. The weekly operating rate of wire and cable enterprises increased slightly; the operating rate of copper strip enterprises increased [92][96][99][102][105][108]. - Refined - Scrap Price Difference: The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference has rebounded, reporting 796 yuan/ton on Friday [113]. 6. Capital Side - Shanghai Copper Position: The total position of Shanghai copper has decreased by 79,960 to 1,068,508 lots (bilateral), among which the position of the near - month 2604 contract is 163,454 lots (bilateral) [118]. - Foreign Fund Position: As of March 24, the CFTC fund position remained net long, and the net long ratio has declined to 15.5%; the proportion of long positions of LME investment funds has declined (as of March 20) [121].
铜周报：风险偏好依然不佳-20260328
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-03-28 14:16