贵金属周报：地缘扰动与流动性需求主导黄金定价-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current geopolitical conflict has become the core focus of the market, and the gold price is significantly affected by news. Although there is a window for the Middle - East tension to cool down, potential geopolitical risks still remain. If the geopolitical conflict eases, the pressure on the global economy from high energy prices and supply - chain disruptions will gradually ease, and the probability of central banks raising interest rates is expected to decline, which may drive the gold price to rise again. However, due to the inflation expectations caused by high oil prices, precious metals will remain in a high - level shock in the short term. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 920 - 1050 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 14,500 - 20,500 yuan/kilogram [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Information: As of the Friday afternoon close, Shanghai gold had a weekly increase of 6.24%, closing at 998.66 yuan/gram; Shanghai silver had a weekly increase of 13.48%, closing at 17,489.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold had a weekly increase of 0.50%, closing at 4,432.30 US dollars/ounce; COMEX silver had a weekly decrease of 0.22%, closing at 69.17 US dollars/ounce; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.42%; the US dollar index had a weekly increase of 0.79%, closing at 99.90 [11] - Geopolitical Impact: The US - Iran conflict has intensified. The US is still considering a "final decisive strike", and the military buildup in the Middle - East has increased the uncertainty of the future war situation. Emerging countries have sold a large amount of gold. The Turkish central bank has sold nearly 60 tons of gold in two weeks, with a market value of over 8 billion US dollars, and the Polish central bank has also planned to sell gold reserves [11] - Strategy: Remain on the sidelines, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 920 - 1050 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 14,500 - 20,500 yuan/kilogram [11] 3.2 Gold Weekly Review - Domestic Market: As of March 27, Shanghai gold had a weekly increase of 6.24%, closing at 998.66 yuan/gram, with a weekly high of 1,013.96 yuan/gram and a low of 940.00 yuan/gram [20] - International Market: As of the afternoon of March 27, COMEX gold had a weekly increase of 0.50%, closing at 4,432.30 US dollars/ounce, with a high of 4,535.50 US dollars/ounce and a low of 4,407.50 US dollars/ounce [22] - Fundamentals: As of the latest reporting period, the net long position of COMEX gold managed funds was 102,000 lots, with long positions of 130,100 lots and short positions of 28,100 lots; the total holdings of major foreign gold ETF funds were 1,675.07 tons [40][42] 3.3 Silver Weekly Review - Domestic Market: As of March 27, Shanghai silver had a weekly increase of 13.48%, closing at 17,489.00 yuan/kilogram, with a high of 18,111.00 yuan/kilogram and a low of 15,411.00 yuan/kilogram [46] - International Market: As of the afternoon of March 27, COMEX silver had a weekly decrease of 0.22%, closing at 69.17 US dollars/ounce, with a high of 71.45 US dollars/ounce and a low of 68.13 US dollars/ounce [49] - Fundamentals: As of the latest reporting period, the net position of COMEX silver managed funds was 9,647 lots, with long positions of 12,768 lots and short positions of 3,121 lots; the total holdings of major foreign silver ETF funds were 25,644.48 tons [63][66] 3.4 US Interest Rates and Liquidity - Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: The total assets increased by 1.222 billion US dollars. The assets side mainly saw an increase in the holding of securities, while the liabilities side mainly saw an increase in reverse repurchase agreements and a decrease in the US Treasury General Account [69] - Federal Reserve Interest Rates: The report presents relevant data on the Federal Reserve's main interest rates and the 10Y - 1Y term premium [74] 3.5 US Macroeconomic Data - GDP: The report shows the year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter growth rates of the US GDP [79] - CPI: The report presents the US CPI, core CPI, and the year - on - year contribution of CPI sub - items [82] - PPI: The report shows the US PPI, core PPI, and the year - on - year and month - on - month data of PPI sub - items [85] - PMI: The report presents the US ISM - PMI manufacturing index and the sub - items of the manufacturing PMI [87] - Housing: The report shows data on new private housing construction, new housing sales, and the year - on - year change of the S&P/CS housing price index in the US [90] - Employment: The report presents data on new non - farm employment, unemployment rate, and sub - items of new non - farm employment in the US [91] - Personal Income: The report shows the average hourly wage of non - farm enterprise employees and the year - on - year change of personal disposable income in the US [96] 3.6 Global Liquidity Tracking - Interest Rates of Major Economies: The report presents the interest rates of major economies and their weekly changes [101][104] - Exchange Rates of Major Economies: The report presents the weekly changes in the exchange rates of major economies against the RMB and the US dollar [107] - Stock Market Performance: The report presents the weekly changes in the stock indices of developed and developing countries, as well as the weekly changes in the sectors of the US and European stock markets [109][112]