甲醇周报：利多多数计价等待边际变化-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous view of taking profits at high levels and short - term waiting is maintained, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment - Market Trend: A chart of the methanol index from 2025 - 01 - 01 to 2026 - 03 - 25 is presented, but no specific trend analysis is given [13][14][15] - Factor Assessment & Strategy - Supply: Overseas methanol production start - up rate has slowed down more than expected, and the domestic start - up rate is expected to decline marginally. Overseas exports are expected to decrease due to geopolitical factors, and the Middle - East trade flow has decreased. The supply factor is bullish (partially priced in) [17] - Demand: The MTO start - up rate has recovered, and there is also a slight recovery expectation in traditional downstream industries. The demand factor is neutral to bullish [17] - Inventory: Port inventory is at a high level in the same period, but de - stocking is expected to be relatively certain later. Factory inventory has been de - stocked smoothly. The inventory factor is neutral to bullish [17] - Cost: Thermal coal prices are fluctuating, and the impact of the increase in energy calorific value prices needs to be carefully observed. Short - term geopolitical events have triggered a small - scale pulse in oil and gas prices, and prices remain volatile at a high level. The cost factor is neutral [17] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Basis and Spread: Charts of methanol term structure, Jiangsu methanol price, methanol main contract basis, and methanol primary - secondary monthly spread are presented, but no specific analysis is given [20][21] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Charts of methanol main contract open interest, trading volume, total open interest, and total trading volume are presented, but no specific analysis is given [23][24] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - Raw Material Prices: Charts of IPE UK natural gas, NYMEX natural gas, power coal in Ordos Q5500, and power coal in Qinhuangdao Port Q5500 are presented, but no specific analysis is given [28][30][33] - Production Profit: Charts of Inner Mongolia coal - based profit calculation, Southwest gas - based profit calculation, Shandong coal - based profit calculation, and MA - 2*ZC profit calculation are presented, but no specific analysis is given [34][35][37] - Port Inventory: Charts of port inventory, East China port inventory, South China port inventory, and methanol social inventory are presented, but no specific analysis is given [39][40] - Regional Inventory: Charts of factory inventory, factory inventory in the Northwest region, factory inventory in the East China region, and Ningbo Port (including Heyuan's self - owned supply) inventory are presented, but no specific analysis is given [41][42] 3.4 Supply Side - Shipment Monitoring: Charts of global shipments, global arrivals, Middle - East shipments, and Asia - Pacific arrivals are presented, but no specific analysis is given [46][47] - Upstream Production and Start - up Rate: Charts of domestic methanol start - up rate, weekly methanol production, and overseas methanol start - up rate are presented, but no specific analysis is given [49][50][55] - Customs Imports: Charts of recent import distribution, imports from Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Iran are presented, but no specific analysis is given [58][59] - Arrival Volume: Charts of methanol arrival volume in the East China region, South China region, and China are presented, but no specific analysis is given [61][62] - International Spread: Charts of import profit, China - Southeast Asia spread, China - US Gulf spread, and China - Europe spread are presented, but no specific analysis is given [64][65] - Regional Spread: Charts of East China - Inner Mongolia spread, East China - Southern Shandong spread, Southern Shandong - Northwest spread, and South China - East China spread are presented, but no specific analysis is given [67][68][71] - Domestic Freight: Charts of methanol freight from Luoyang to Changzhou, Fuyang to Changzhou, Dalate Banner to Dongying, and Yulin to Dongying are presented, but no specific analysis is given [73][74] 3.5 Demand Side - Methanol - to - Olefins: Charts of olefin start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang MTO start - up rate, Fude profit, and Xingxing profit are presented, but no specific analysis is given [78][79] - PP Production Profit by Different Processes: Charts of PP oil - based production gross profit, coal - based production gross profit, PDH - based production gross profit, and externally - purchased propylene - based production gross profit are presented, but no specific analysis is given [80][81] - MTO - Related Spreads: Charts of on - paper PP - 3MA, LL - 3MA, EG - 2MA, and MA - 2ZC are presented, but no specific analysis is given [83][84] - Traditional Downstream: Charts of methanol downstream demand proportion, 1,4 - butanediol capacity utilization rate, DMF start - up rate, DMC start - up rate, acetic acid start - up rate, acetic acid profit, formaldehyde start - up rate, formaldehyde profit, dimethyl ether start - up rate, dimethyl ether profit, MTBE start - up rate, MTBE profit, dichloromethane profit, and downstream manufacturer raw material inventory are presented, but no specific analysis is given [86][87][98] - Related Product Ratios: Charts of methanol/urea, methanol/INE crude oil, methanol/thermal coal, and methanol/ethylene glycol are presented, but no specific analysis is given [100][101] 3.6 Options - Related - Methanol Options: Charts of methanol options open interest, trading volume, open interest PCR, and trading volume PCR are presented, but no specific analysis is given [104][105] 3.7 Industry Structure Diagram - Methanol Industry Chain: A chart of the methanol industry chain and a mind - map of the methanol research framework analysis are presented, but no specific analysis is given [108][110]