沥青周报：维持观望-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "wait - and - see" rating for the asphalt industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the previous round, the view was that the production increase rhythm of Venezuela would accelerate, and the external trade pressure on asphalt would ease, leading to a potential decline in asphalt valuation. The strategy of short - allocating the asphalt/crude oil price ratio was recommended to take profit and wait at low levels. In this round, the view is to maintain a wait - and - see stance [16] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Market Review: The report presents the recent price trend of the asphalt main contract, and indicates the changes in supply - demand and cost factors during different time periods [13][14] - Factor Assessment: For supply, domestic heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate is relatively low, and overseas imports are relatively sluggish. The import window is open, and there is a risk of subsequent import pressure. For demand, the demand for waterproofing membranes is better than expected, and the overall demand is flat. For inventory, the overall inventory is better than before due to trade imports, and the de - stocking expectation is relatively certain. For cost, the upward space of crude oil cost is limited, waiting for the end of geopolitical factors [16] - Strategy Recommendation: The previous strategy of short - allocating the asphalt/crude oil price ratio was recommended to take profit and wait at low levels, and this round maintains a wait - and - see stance [16] 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - Spot Price: The report shows the price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong, Northeast, North China, and East China regions [19][21][23][27] - Basis Trend: The basis trends of asphalt in Shandong and East China regions are presented [28][29] - Term Structure: The term structure of asphalt and the price differences between different contract months are shown [31][32] 3.3 Supply Side - Capacity Utilization and Profit: The capacity utilization rate of heavy - traffic asphalt, the production profit of Shandong asphalt, and the relationship between asphalt operation, profit, and crude oil price are presented [36][37] - Import: The import volume of asphalt and diluted asphalt, the import profit of asphalt from different regions, and the cumulative import volume from different countries are shown [39][40][42] - Valuation Ratio: The ratios of fuel oil to asphalt and asphalt to Brent are presented [44][45] - Refinery Profit: The refining profits of major refineries and Shandong local refineries, as well as the operation rate and production profit of petroleum coke, are shown [47][48][51] 3.4 Inventory - Domestic Inventory: The inventory levels of domestic factories, social inventory, total domestic inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory are presented [55][56] - Warehouse Receipts: The quantity of asphalt warehouse receipts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the asphalt main contract are shown [58][59] - Inventory and Price: The relationships between inventory and profit, and between profit and price are presented [61][63] 3.5 Demand Side - Enterprise Shipment Volume: The shipment volumes of asphalt by sample enterprises in China, Shandong, East China, and North China regions are presented [67][68][70][72] - Downstream Operating Rate: The operating rates of rubber shoe materials, road modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes are presented [77][78][80][83] - Highway Investment: The cumulative value of highway construction investment in China, the monthly year - on - year change and monthly value of public fiscal expenditure on transportation, and the relationship between asphalt demand and transportation fiscal expenditure are presented [84][85] - Road - Related Machinery: The monthly sales volume of road rollers and excavators, the monthly operating hours of excavators, and the cumulative value of highway construction investment in China are presented [87][88] - Related Consumption: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of fixed - asset investment in railway transportation, road transportation, and water conservancy management industries, and the cumulative value of local government special bond issuance are presented [90][91][92] 3.6 Related Indicators - Position, Trading Volume, and Price Volatility: The trading volume, position, and 20 - day historical volatility of asphalt futures are presented [95][96][97] 3.7 Industrial Chain Structure Diagram - Crude Oil Industrial Chain: The exploration and extraction links of the crude oil industrial chain are presented [100][101] - Asphalt Industrial Chain: From the production process perspective, asphalt can be divided into straight - run asphalt, oxidized asphalt, blended asphalt, modified asphalt, and emulsified asphalt, with straight - run asphalt accounting for over 80% and mostly used in road construction. By use, it is divided into road asphalt, building asphalt, and special - purpose asphalt, mainly used for waterproofing, anti - corrosion, and road construction [102][104]