铅周报：蓄企采买增加，进口铅锭流入-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a complex situation. The increase in purchases by battery enterprises and the inflow of imported lead ingots have an impact on the market. Although the spot market gets short - term support from downstream battery enterprises' low - price stockpiling and the low operating rate of secondary smelting enterprises, the high Shanghai - London ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in battery exports. Also, the previous high oil prices have put pressure on the non - ferrous metals sector, and there is a possibility of further decline in lead prices [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment - Price Review: The Shanghai Lead Index closed up 0.57% to 16,553 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total unilateral trading position of 113,100 lots. The LME Lead 3S rose 6.5 to 1,907.5 dollars/ton, with a total position of 177,100 lots. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots and secondary refined lead was 16,325 yuan/ton, with a flat price difference between refined and scrap lead. The average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 9,775 yuan/ton [11]. - Domestic Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons. As of March 26, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from March 23. The domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton. Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 14,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 135 dollars/ton. Cross - market Structure: The Shanghai - London ratio after exchange adjustment was 1.256, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 591.16 yuan/ton [11]. - Industry Data: At the primary end, the port inventory of lead concentrates was 41,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 460,000 tons, equivalent to 30.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton. The primary smelting operating rate was 62.81%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. At the secondary end, the waste lead inventory was 114,000 tons, the secondary smelting operating rate was 30.00%, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 14,000 tons. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.92% [11]. - The visible inventory of lead concentrates and lead waste has increased. The primary smelting operating rate is stable, and the secondary smelting operating rate has recovered. The factory inventories of primary and secondary lead ingots and the social inventory of lead ingots have all declined. The spot market gets short - term support, but the high Shanghai - London ratio leads to an increase in imported lead ingots and a decrease in battery exports. There is a possibility of further decline in lead prices [11]. 3.2. Primary Supply - Import Data: In February 2026, the net import of lead concentrates was 128,500 physical tons, a year - on - year change of 26.4% and a month - on - month change of 3.8%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of lead concentrates was 252,200 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.8%. The net import of silver concentrates in February 2026 was 148,600 physical tons, a year - on - year change of - 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 17.4%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of silver concentrates was 328,600 physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.3% [15]. - Production Data: In February 2026, China's lead concentrate production was 89,600 metal tons, a year - on - year change of - 9.7% and a month - on - month change of - 29.4%. From January to February, the total production of lead concentrates was 216,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7%. The net import of lead - containing ores in February 2026 was 136,500 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 6.7%. From January to February, the cumulative net import of lead - containing ores was 282,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 6.3% [17]. - Total Supply: In February 2026, the total supply of lead concentrates in China was 226,100 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 0.5% and a month - on - month change of - 17.2%. From January to February, the cumulative supply of lead concentrates was 499,300 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. In January 2026, the overseas lead ore production was 242,800 tons, a year - on - year change of - 1.74% and a month - on - month change of - 11.97% [19]. - Inventory and TC: The port inventory of lead concentrates was 41,000 tons, and the factory inventory was 460,000 tons, equivalent to 30.1 days. The import TC of lead concentrates was - 135 dollars/dry ton, and the domestic TC was 250 yuan/metal ton, with TC stabilizing [21][23]. - Smelting: The primary smelting operating rate was 62.81%, and the primary ingot factory inventory was 17,000 tons. In February 2026, China's primary lead production was 283,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 2.0% and a month - on - month change of - 17.1%. From January to February, the total production of primary lead ingots was 626,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 10.1% [26]. 3.3. Secondary Supply - Raw Materials and Production: The waste lead inventory at the secondary end was 114,000 tons. The secondary smelting operating rate was 30.00%, and the secondary ingot factory inventory was 14,000 tons. In February 2026, China's secondary lead production was 217,600 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.9% and a month - on - month change of - 40.4%. From January to February, the total production of secondary lead ingots was 582,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 12.9% [31][33]. - Trade and Total Supply: In February 2026, the net export of lead ingots was - 36,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 2857.0% and a month - on - month change of - 7.2%. From January to February, the cumulative net export of lead ingots was - 74,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 540.7%. In February 2026, the total domestic supply of lead ingots was 537,400 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.7% and a month - on - month change of - 28.0%. From January to February, the cumulative domestic supply of lead ingots was 1,283,300 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 17.1% [35]. 3.4. Demand Analysis - Battery Demand: The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 73.92%. In February 2026, the apparent demand for lead ingots in China was 474,400 tons, a year - on - year change of - 2.6% and a month - on - month change of - 31.2%. From January to February, the cumulative apparent demand for lead ingots was 1,164,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 8.5% [38]. - Battery Exports: In February 2026, the net export volume of lead - acid batteries was 1,429,540 units, the net export of other batteries was 956,020 units, and the net export of starting batteries was 473,520 units, a year - on - year change of 16.4% and a month - on - month change of - 24.8%. From January to February, the total net export volume of lead - acid batteries was 3,330,960 units, a cumulative year - on - year change of - 1.9% [41]. - Inventory: In February 2026, the finished product inventory days of lead - acid battery factories decreased from 23.5 days to 23 days, and the inventory days of lead - acid batteries in dealers decreased from 40.74 days to 33.35 days [43]. - Terminal Demand: In the two - wheeled vehicle sector, although the decline in electric bicycle production drags down the new - installation demand, the continuous growth of express delivery and take - out delivery scenarios drives the improvement of new - installation consumption of electric two - and three - wheeled vehicles. In the automobile sector, the contribution of lead demand is expected to maintain stable growth. Although new energy vehicles use lithium - iron - phosphate starting batteries, the high stock of traditional vehicles provides support for lead consumption. In the base - station sector, the increase in the number of communication base - stations and 5G base - stations drives the steady increase in the demand for lead - acid batteries [48][50][53]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Inventory - Domestic Balance: In February 2026, the domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 62,900 tons. From January to February, the cumulative domestic lead ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 107,000 tons [62]. - Overseas Balance: In January 2026, the overseas refined lead supply - demand difference was a shortage of 64,400 tons [65]. 3.6. Price Outlook - Domestic Structure: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 52,500 tons. As of March 26, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,600 tons, a decrease of 5,500 tons from March 23. The domestic primary basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the spread between continuous contracts and the first - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton [70]. - Overseas Structure: The LME lead ingot inventory was 283,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 14,300 tons. The overseas cash - 3S contract basis was - 34.62 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 135 dollars/ton [73]. - Cross - market Structure: The Shanghai - London ratio after exchange adjustment was 1.256, and the import profit and loss of lead ingots was 591.16 yuan/ton [76]. - Position: The net short position of investment funds in LME lead increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises decreased [81].