锡周报：地缘主导盘面，锡价小幅反弹-20260328

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tin supply side has marginally improved compared to before the holiday, but it is still constrained by the tight raw material situation. With the mining and recycling ends under pressure, the smelting capacity release is slow, and short - term supply increments are expected to be limited. The tin demand side also shows marginal improvement, and short - term consumption is likely to maintain a weak recovery pattern. Downstream enterprises' inventory replenishment at low prices provides short - term support for tin prices. Considering recent geopolitical disturbances and the significant decline in the US interest rate cut expectation, tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. The reference operating range for domestic main contracts is 300,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is 40,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In February, the total domestic tin ore imports remained at a relatively high level. The domestic tin ore imports in February were about 17,100 tons, equivalent to about 5,034 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.69% and a year - on - year increase of 96.04%. The recovery of supply from Myanmar was the main source of the increase. High - frequency data suggests that the tin ore imports from Myanmar in March are expected to remain at a relatively high level [12] - Supply side: This week, the tin supply side continued the post - holiday recovery but with limited upward movement. After the Spring Festival and Lantern Festival, the operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi have rebounded from the holiday lows. Yunnan's复产 rhythm is relatively faster, while Jiangxi's recovery amplitude is relatively limited. However, this week's increase in operating rates is mainly a post - holiday routine recovery, not driven by improved raw materials or increased demand, so its sustainability and upward elasticity are limited. Yunnan's smelters are still affected by the tight tin ore supply, and the import of raw materials is not smooth, restricting further output release. Jiangxi is mainly constrained by the slow recovery of the scrap tin recycling system, with insufficient arrival of recycled raw materials and low enterprise raw material inventories, which hinder the increase in operating rates [12] - Demand side: This week, the tin demand side is still in a weak recovery stage. Affected by the Spring Festival in February, downstream consumption contracted significantly. In March, there has been no substantial improvement. Traditional consumption sectors are still weak, and demand release is lower than expected. Photovoltaic demand has slightly improved, but the actual consumption increment is not significant, and its boosting effect on overall demand is limited. The production schedule in the household appliance sector has increased in March, indicating marginal demand recovery, but the recovery slope is still gentle. Recently, the sharp decline in tin prices has led downstream enterprises to actively replenish inventories, resulting in a significant reduction in inventories. As of March 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9,656 tons, a decrease of 1,379 tons from last Friday [12] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Tin spot prices fluctuate with futures, and the premium and discount are stable [19] 3.3 Cost Side - The monthly average domestic tin ore output fluctuates around 6,000 tons [24] - The processing fee for 40 - degree tin ore in Yunnan has increased from 10,000 yuan/ton to 12,000 yuan/ton, indicating a marginal alleviation of the tin ore shortage [27] 3.4 Supply Side - In February, the domestic refined tin output was 10,613 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25%; the recycled tin output was 1,770 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40% [32] - After the holiday, the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi have recovered to the pre - holiday level [35] - In January 2026, the domestic refined tin export volume was 2,139 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35% and a year - on - year decrease of 21%; the import volume was 1,866 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21% and a year - on - year decrease of 34%; the net export volume was 273 tons [41] 3.5 Demand Side - In January, the year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales continued to rise, and global semiconductor sales maintained high growth [46] - In the consumer electronics sector, from January to February 2026, the PC production was 41.95 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%; the smartphone production was 187.08 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.7% [49] - In the tin consumption of the tinplate field, there is a slight year - on - year decline. Aluminum cans have almost completely replaced tinplate cans in the beverage packaging field. In 2025, the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year [58] - The operating rate of downstream solder enterprises remained stable [61] 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - As of March 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 9,656 tons, a decrease of 1,379 tons from last Friday [66]